Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Suns, while the market favors Spurs (78%). 11 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spurs vs. Suns

11 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (79%) · Suns at 23¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 10

Spurs78¢Suns22¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Suns

Consensus Traders

Suns 79%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$4.59

Smart Money Entry

22.9¢ → 22.5¢

-2% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

11 of 14 top traders (79%)Underdog side (market favors Spurs 78%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Spurs78%

Suns23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Suns11 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares6,973

Combined PnL-$12.92

Spurs3 traders

Total Value$238.17

Total Shares307

Combined PnL+$8.33

Suns — 79%Spurs — 21%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

79% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSuns 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrSuns 70% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedSuns 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Suns 77% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Sunsavg 22.4¢	$2.0K	$496.2	+$4.44	54% 20066-16931 (36997)
VeryLucky888CTR	Sunsavg 22.8¢	$442.47	$437.19	-$5.28	59% 52520-37212 (89732)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Sunsavg 24¢	$241.04	$242.32	+$1.28	50% 48656-48220 (96876)
HI hi774cCTR	Sunsavg 23¢	$939.45	$211.38	-$4.7	46% 5660-6562 (12222)
PU purplegatto	Spursavg 74.1¢	$260.55	$201.93	+$8.92	49% 6677-6879 (13556)
38 38791873984189CTR	Sunsavg 23¢	$551.22	$124.02	-$2.76	48% 70392-76030 (146422)
LI LimousinCTR	Sunsavg 23¢	$311	$69.98	-$1.55	48% 2283-2446 (4729)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Spursavg 74¢	$27.3	$27.13	-$0.18	64% 2177-1205 (3382)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Sunsavg 23.2¢	$92.97	$20.92	-$0.62	50% 27997-27469 (55466)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Sunsavg 23¢	$83.69	$18.83	-$0.42	57% 24733-18312 (43045)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Sunsavg 26¢	$81.26	$18.28	-$2.84	48% 8346-8906 (17252)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Sunsavg 23.9¢	$14.89	$14.03	-$0.31	47% 2268-2572 (4840)
GA Gaditima<$100	Spursavg 81¢	$9.53	$9.12	-$0.41	47% 8677-9836 (18513)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Sunsavg 23¢	$30	$6.75	-$0.15	52% 27371-24877 (52248)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Suns

Invested

$2,043.89

Value

$496.2

PnL

+$4.44

Record

54%

20066-16931 (36997)

VeryLucky888CTR

Suns

Invested

$442.47

Value

$437.19

PnL

-$5.28

Record

59%

52520-37212 (89732)

SnakeBallCTR

Suns

Invested

$241.04

Value

$242.32

PnL

+$1.28

Record

50%

48656-48220 (96876)

hi774cCTR

Suns

Invested

$939.45

Value

$211.38

PnL

-$4.7

Record

46%

5660-6562 (12222)

purplegatto

Spurs

Invested

$260.55

Value

$201.93

PnL

+$8.92

Record

49%

6677-6879 (13556)

38791873984189CTR

Suns

Invested

$551.22

Value

$124.02

PnL

-$2.76

Record

48%

70392-76030 (146422)

LimousinCTR

Suns

Invested

$311

Value

$69.98

PnL

-$1.55

Record

48%

2283-2446 (4729)

darkumbreon88<$100

Spurs

Invested

$27.3

Value

$27.13

PnL

-$0.18

Record

64%

2177-1205 (3382)

sentrioCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$92.97

Value

$20.92

PnL

-$0.62

Record

50%

27997-27469 (55466)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$83.69

Value

$18.83

PnL

-$0.42

Record

57%

24733-18312 (43045)

OddstormCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$81.26

Value

$18.28

PnL

-$2.84

Record

48%

8346-8906 (17252)

VenusianCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$14.89

Value

$14.03

PnL

-$0.31

Record

47%

2268-2572 (4840)

Gaditima<$100

Spurs

Invested

$9.53

Value

$9.12

PnL

-$0.41

Record

47%

8677-9836 (18513)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$30

Value

$6.75

PnL

-$0.15

Record

52%

27371-24877 (52248)

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

11 of 14 top traders (79%)Underdog side (market favors Spurs 78%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

79% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSuns 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrSuns 70% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedSuns 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Suns 77% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Suns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.4%

22.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$309.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

409.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.