Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (57%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spurs vs. Bulls: O/U 240.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 43¢ · $890 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 67%
$890.33
$33.54
43.2¢ → 42.5¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 43%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 57%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+27 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KA KasonWong | Underavg 51¢ | $267.4 | $298.86 | +$31.46 | 23% 7-24 (31) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 54¢ | $159.35 | $168.22 | +$8.88 | 57% 3226-2432 (5658) |
NM NM-PCTR | Overavg 43¢ | $150.5 | $148.75 | -$1.75 | 59% 3478-2368 (5846) |
GC GC-PCTR | Overavg 43¢ | $150.5 | $148.75 | -$1.75 | 21% 99-382 (481) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 43.5¢ | $126.64 | $123.6 | -$3.05 | 52% 490-447 (937) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $2.4 | $2.15 | -$0.25 | 33% 317-631 (948) |
Invested
$267.4
Value
$298.86
PnL
+$31.46
Record
23%
7-24 (31)
Invested
$159.35
Value
$168.22
PnL
+$8.88
Record
57%
3226-2432 (5658)
Invested
$150.5
Value
$148.75
PnL
-$1.75
Record
59%
3478-2368 (5846)
Invested
$150.5
Value
$148.75
PnL
-$1.75
Record
21%
99-382 (481)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$126.64
Value
$123.6
PnL
-$3.05
Record
52%
490-447 (937)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$2.15
PnL
-$0.25
Record
33%
317-631 (948)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.