Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 1 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spurs vs. Bulls: O/U 239.5
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (14%) · Under at 50¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 14%
$5.7K
-$51.79
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR | Underavg 49¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$30.11 | 3% 7-200 (207) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 51¢ | $2.5K | $2.4K | -$73.18 | 57% 3221-2429 (5650) |
38 38791873984189 | Overavg 51¢ | $139.3 | $135.31 | -$3.98 | 48% 1286-1384 (2670) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 51¢ | $127.5 | $123.75 | -$3.75 | 52% 441-414 (855) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $18.87 | $18.32 | -$0.55 | 48% 654-705 (1359) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $14.85 | $14.64 | -$0.21 | 54% 553-471 (1024) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $7.65 | $7.42 | -$0.22 | 31% 278-610 (888) |
Invested
$2,950.87
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$30.11
Record
3%
7-200 (207)
Invested
$2,488
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$73.18
Record
57%
3221-2429 (5650)
Invested
$139.3
Value
$135.31
PnL
-$3.98
Record
48%
1286-1384 (2670)
VeryLucky888Invested
$127.5
Value
$123.75
PnL
-$3.75
Record
52%
441-414 (855)
Invested
$18.87
Value
$18.32
PnL
-$0.55
Record
48%
654-705 (1359)
Invested
$14.85
Value
$14.64
PnL
-$0.21
Record
54%
553-471 (1024)
Invested
$7.65
Value
$7.42
PnL
-$0.22
Record
31%
278-610 (888)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.