Spurs vs. Bulls: O/U 238.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 52¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 67%
$1.1K
$42.43
49.5¢ → 51.5¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 52%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 49¢ | $752.43 | $790.82 | +$38.39 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Underavg 51¢ | $283.21 | $285.99 | +$2.78 | 53% 1818-1628 (3446) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $11.45 | $12.43 | +$0.97 | 55% 625-514 (1139) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $5.57 | $5.52 | -$0.06 | 52% 463-433 (896) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $4.62 | $5.02 | +$0.39 | 45% 267-322 (589) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $4.42 | $4.37 | -$0.05 | 32% 295-621 (916) |
Invested
$752.43
Value
$790.82
PnL
+$38.39
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$283.21
Value
$285.99
PnL
+$2.78
Record
53%
1818-1628 (3446)
Invested
$11.45
Value
$12.43
PnL
+$0.97
Record
55%
625-514 (1139)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$5.57
Value
$5.52
PnL
-$0.06
Record
52%
463-433 (896)
Invested
$4.62
Value
$5.02
PnL
+$0.39
Record
45%
267-322 (589)
Invested
$4.42
Value
$4.37
PnL
-$0.05
Record
32%
295-621 (916)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.