Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (53%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spurs vs. Bulls: O/U 237.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (56%) · Over at 48¢ · $25K held · ends Nov 12

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 56%

Total Value

$24.9K

Combined PnL

-$136.28

Smart Money Entry

48.8¢ → 47.5¢

-3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$12.5K

Total Shares26,604

Combined PnL-$471.83

Under4 traders

Total Value$12.4K

Total Shares23,651

Combined PnL+$335.55

Over — 56%Under — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO BoggsFromShawshankCTR	Overavg 48.8¢	$12.6K	$12.1K	-$461.47	2% 7-386 (393)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 51¢	$10.8K	$11.2K	+$319.11	53% 1841-1653 (3494)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 51.8¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$15.89	57% 3226-2432 (5658)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 48.5¢	$270.92	$263.18	-$7.75	48% 1420-1557 (2977)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 48.2¢	$54.01	$48.88	-$1.21	49% 684-724 (1408)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$48	$47	-$1	67% 1661-813 (2474)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.6	+$0.3	30% 399-910 (1309)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 55¢	$2.75	$2.35	-$0.4	33% 317-631 (948)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 45¢	$1.64	$1.89	+$0.25	46% 292-339 (631)

BoggsFromShawshankCTR

Over

Invested

$12,609.43

Value

$12.1K

PnL

-$461.47

Record

7-386 (393)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$10,849.63

Value

$11.2K

PnL

+$319.11

Record

53%

1841-1653 (3494)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$1,227.66

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$15.89

Record

57%

3226-2432 (5658)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$270.92

Value

$263.18

PnL

-$7.75

Record

48%

1420-1557 (2977)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$54.01

Value

$48.88

PnL

-$1.21

Record

49%

684-724 (1408)

RLWGCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$48

Value

$47

PnL

-$1

Record

67%

1661-813 (2474)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0.3

Record

30%

399-910 (1309)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$0.4

Record

33%

317-631 (948)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$1.64

Value

$1.89

PnL

+$0.25

Record

46%

292-339 (631)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.