Spread: Spurs (-9.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (80%) · Spurs at 68¢ · $545 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Spurs
5
Spurs 80%
$544.72
-$2.82
67¢ → 68¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidSpurs at 68%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Spursavg 67¢ | $195.64 | $195.64 | +$0 | 48% 1056-1134 (2190) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Bullsavg 33¢ | $186.42 | $183.59 | -$2.82 | 30% 326-779 (1105) |
FO forecastication4<$100 | Spursavg 67¢ | $81.07 | $81.07 | +$0 | 13% 28-196 (224) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Spursavg 67¢ | $77.72 | $77.72 | +$0 | 48% 512-544 (1056) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Spursavg 67¢ | $6.7 | $6.7 | +$0 | 68% 1617-760 (2377) |
Invested
$195.64
Value
$195.64
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
1056-1134 (2190)
Invested
$186.42
Value
$183.59
PnL
-$2.82
Record
30%
326-779 (1105)
Invested
$81.07
Value
$81.07
PnL
+$0
Record
13%
28-196 (224)
Invested
$77.72
Value
$77.72
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
512-544 (1056)
Invested
$6.7
Value
$6.7
PnL
+$0
Record
68%
1617-760 (2377)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.