Spread: Spurs (-12.5)
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (20%) · Spurs at 59¢ · $730 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Spurs
5
Spurs 20%
$730.48
$5.54
Research grade
AvoidSpurs at 59%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Spursavg 58¢ | $669.81 | $675.7 | +$5.89 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Bullsavg 39¢ | $37.18 | $37.65 | +$0.48 | 59% 3476-2367 (5843) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Bullsavg 41¢ | $10.25 | $9.75 | -$0.5 | 48% 659-706 (1365) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Bullsavg 41¢ | $5.7 | $5.42 | -$0.28 | 45% 262-316 (578) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Bullsavg 40¢ | $2 | $1.95 | -$0.05 | 32% 282-611 (893) |
Invested
$669.81
Value
$675.7
PnL
+$5.89
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$37.18
Value
$37.65
PnL
+$0.48
Record
59%
3476-2367 (5843)
Invested
$10.25
Value
$9.75
PnL
-$0.5
Record
48%
659-706 (1365)
Invested
$5.7
Value
$5.42
PnL
-$0.28
Record
45%
262-316 (578)
Invested
$2
Value
$1.95
PnL
-$0.05
Record
32%
282-611 (893)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.