Kings vs. Spurs: O/U 247.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 67¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 33%
$6.5K
-$293.55
54.4¢ → 66.5¢
+22% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 67%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Underavg 54.7¢ | $3.9K | $3.8K | -$122.95 | 48% 500-532 (1032) |
 NooseracCTR | Overavg 45¢ | $3.2K | $1.5K | +$94.89 | 52% 5696-5265 (10961) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Overavg 56.6¢ | $1.3K | $984.32 | -$311.87 | 54% 3774-3233 (7007) |
JU justaluckydude | Underavg 43¢ | $94.17 | $116.07 | +$21.9 | 54% 10411-9036 (19447) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $69.42 | $98.31 | +$28.9 | 53% 2815-2479 (5294) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Overavg 60¢ | $20.4 | $15.98 | -$4.42 | 59% 29970-20691 (50661) |
Invested
$3,883.05
Value
$3.8K
PnL
-$122.95
Record
48%
500-532 (1032)
NooseracCTRInvested
$3,162.96
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$94.89
Record
52%
5696-5265 (10961)
Invested
$1,296.2
Value
$984.32
PnL
-$311.87
Record
54%
3774-3233 (7007)
Invested
$94.17
Value
$116.07
PnL
+$21.9
Record
54%
10411-9036 (19447)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$69.42
Value
$98.31
PnL
+$28.9
Record
53%
2815-2479 (5294)
Invested
$20.4
Value
$15.98
PnL
-$4.42
Record
59%
29970-20691 (50661)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.