Kings vs. Spurs: O/U 245.5

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 55¢ · $16K held · ended Oct 28

Over45¢Under55¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.3K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

48.5¢ → 55¢

+13% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares10,665

Combined PnL+$2.5K

Under3 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares12,901

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Over — 57%Under — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 51.2¢	$5.0K	$7.4K	+$2.3K	48% 500-532 (1032)
Nooserac	Underavg 49¢	$4.5K	$4.3K	-$277.68	52% 5696-5265 (10961)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 52.7¢	$3.5K	$3.2K	-$235.75	54% 16767-14068 (30835)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.9¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$33.53
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.7¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$269.28
GA gagarin59	Underavg 47.3¢	$1.7K	$908.85	-$810.84	52% 639-583 (1222)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 46.6¢	$360.78	$476.01	+$115.23	54% 3774-3233 (7007)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Overavg 54¢	$18.9	$21.53	+$2.62	59% 29970-20691 (50661)
RL RLWG<$100	Underavg 46¢	$4.6	$4.6	+$0	50% 7602-7622 (15224)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$3.66	$4.16	+$0.5	53% 2815-2479 (5294)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$5,046.89

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

48%

500-532 (1032)

Nooserac

Under

Invested

$4,535.46

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$277.68

Record

52%

5696-5265 (10961)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,481.13

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$235.75

Record

54%

16767-14068 (30835)

Both legs:

Under$1,631.9553.9¢+$33.53

Over$1,849.1852.7¢-$269.28

gagarin59

Under

Invested

$1,719.69

Value

$908.85

PnL

-$810.84

Record

52%

639-583 (1222)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$360.78

Value

$476.01

PnL

+$115.23

Record

54%

3774-3233 (7007)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$18.9

Value

$21.53

PnL

+$2.62

Record

59%

29970-20691 (50661)

RLWG<$100

Under

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.6

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

7602-7622 (15224)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.66

Value

$4.16

PnL

+$0.5

Record

53%

2815-2479 (5294)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.2%

55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$74.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

174.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.