Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (55%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Kings vs. Spurs: O/U 243.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 46¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 80%
1 arb excluded
$6.6K
-$154.95
64.1¢ → 45.5¢
-29% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 46%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA takeormake | Overavg 32.9¢ | $2.4K | $4.1K | +$1.7K | 54% 3774-3233 (7007) |
EL ElectricyCTR | Underavg 72¢ | $4.2K | $1.6K | $-1.5K | 62% 369-231 (600) |
GA gagarin59CTR | Underavg 47.9¢ | $2.1K | $641.5 | -$382.11 | 52% 639-583 (1222) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $557.23 | $278.61 | -$8.36 | 48% 500-532 (1032) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 53¢ | $147.66 | $169.95 | +$22.29 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 50¢ | $139.31 | $108.66 | -$30.65 | |
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100 | Underavg 75¢ | $38.38 | $35.77 | -$2.61 | 65% 1657-895 (2552) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 72¢ | $25.46 | $25.2 | -$0.26 | 53% 2815-2479 (5294) |
Invested
$2,357.39
Value
$4.1K
PnL
+$1.7K
Record
54%
3774-3233 (7007)
Invested
$4,243.24
Value
$1.6K
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
62%
369-231 (600)
Invested
$2,138.33
Value
$641.5
PnL
-$382.11
Record
52%
639-583 (1222)
Invested
$557.23
Value
$278.61
PnL
-$8.36
Record
48%
500-532 (1032)
Both legs:
Invested
$38.38
Value
$35.77
PnL
-$2.61
Record
65%
1657-895 (2552)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$25.46
Value
$25.2
PnL
-$0.26
Record
53%
2815-2479 (5294)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.