Kings vs. Spurs: O/U 241.5

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 61¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 28

Over61¢Under39¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 43%

Total Value

$8.2K

Combined PnL

$-1.9K

Smart Money Entry

71.2¢ → 61¢

-14% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over61%

Under39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$7.6K

Total Shares12,452

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Under4 traders

Total Value$623.18

Total Shares2,189

Combined PnL-$485.56

Over — 43%Under — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
aibaby	Overavg 77¢	$7.7K	$5.9K	$-1.8K	51% 87-82 (169)
TA takeormake	Overavg 46.9¢	$888.48	$1.2K	+$323.93	54% 3774-3233 (7007)
GA gagarin59CTR	Underavg 51.7¢	$2.0K	$545.13	-$479.89	52% 639-583 (1222)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 49¢	$835.84	$468.07	+$69.65	48% 500-532 (1032)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Underavg 51¢	$52.53	$42.23	-$10.3	50% 3682-3663 (7345)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Underavg 29¢	$27.84	$34.56	+$6.72	54% 10411-9036 (19447)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 41.1¢	$3.35	$1.26	-$2.09	53% 2815-2479 (5294)

aibaby

Over

Invested

$7,699.6

Value

$5.9K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

51%

87-82 (169)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$888.48

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$323.93

Record

54%

3774-3233 (7007)

gagarin59CTR

Under

Invested

$1,982.29

Value

$545.13

PnL

-$479.89

Record

52%

639-583 (1222)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$835.84

Value

$468.07

PnL

+$69.65

Record

48%

500-532 (1032)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$52.53

Value

$42.23

PnL

-$10.3

Record

50%

3682-3663 (7345)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.84

Value

$34.56

PnL

+$6.72

Record

54%

10411-9036 (19447)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.35

Value

$1.26

PnL

-$2.09

Record

53%

2815-2479 (5294)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.