Kings vs. Spurs: O/U 235.5

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 92¢ · $41K held · ended Oct 28

Over92¢Under8¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$40.7K

Combined PnL

-$194.6

Smart Money Entry

48.9¢ → 91.5¢

+87% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 14 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over92%

Under9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$19.5K

Total Shares39,459

Combined PnL-$637.44

Under8 traders

Total Value$13.8K

Total Shares24,881

Combined PnL+$442.85

Over — 43%Under — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
aibaby	Overavg 52.4¢	$10.5K	$8.8K	$-1.7K	51% 84-81 (165)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 46.3¢	$7.0K	$7.4K	+$387.13	54% 16761-14066 (30827)
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.3¢	$3.8K	$4.2K	+$346.76
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.9¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$40.37
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 45¢	$6.6K	$6.6K	+$19.71	48% 500-532 (1032)
NooseracCTR	Underavg 55¢	$6.6K	$6.6K	+$59.65	52% 5696-5265 (10961)
TA takeormake	Overavg 45.1¢	$2.5K	$3.5K	+$1.0K	54% 3774-3233 (7007)
GA gagarin59CTR	Underavg 48.9¢	$2.2K	$2.5K	+$297.36	52% 639-583 (1222)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Underavg 54.7¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$27	51% 1228-1166 (2394)
TO torta.techCTR	Underavg 55¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$35.02	63% 7957-4739 (12696)
CH chiefphiCTR	Underavg 53¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$50	54% 86-74 (160)
MO mooseborzoii	Overavg 50¢	$485	$494.7	+$9.7	50% 1112-1112 (2224)
HRTradingCTR	Underavg 47.6¢	$282.5	$329.25	+$46.75	54% 2744-2368 (5112)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR<$100	Underavg 56¢	$65.37	$62.46	-$2.92	53% 6103-5330 (11433)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Overavg 47¢	$48.41	$45.84	-$2.57	54% 10411-9036 (19447)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Underavg 55¢	$2.75	$2.78	+$0.03	50% 7594-7617 (15211)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 41¢	$2.08	$2.54	+$0.46	58% 27917-20560 (48477)

aibaby

Over

Invested

$10,478.52

Value

$8.8K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

51%

84-81 (165)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$7,041.65

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$387.13

Record

54%

16761-14066 (30827)

Both legs:

Over$3,819.0146.3¢+$346.76

Under$3,222.6448.9¢+$40.37

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$6,610.16

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$19.71

Record

48%

500-532 (1032)

NooseracCTR

Under

Invested

$6,561.53

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$59.65

Record

52%

5696-5265 (10961)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$2,488.69

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

54%

3774-3233 (7007)

gagarin59CTR

Under

Invested

$2,200.74

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$297.36

Record

52%

639-583 (1222)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Under

Invested

$1,860

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$27

Record

51%

1228-1166 (2394)

torta.techCTR

Under

Invested

$1,284.25

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$35.02

Record

63%

7957-4739 (12696)

chiefphiCTR

Under

Invested

$1,060

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$50

Record

54%

86-74 (160)

mooseborzoii

Over

Invested

$485

Value

$494.7

PnL

+$9.7

Record

50%

1112-1112 (2224)

HRTradingCTR

Under

Invested

$282.5

Value

$329.25

PnL

+$46.75

Record

54%

2744-2368 (5112)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$65.37

Value

$62.46

PnL

-$2.92

Record

53%

6103-5330 (11433)

justaluckydude<$100

Over

Invested

$48.41

Value

$45.84

PnL

-$2.57

Record

54%

10411-9036 (19447)

RLWGCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.78

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

7594-7617 (15211)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$2.08

Value

$2.54

PnL

+$0.46

Record

58%

27917-20560 (48477)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 14 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.