Kings vs. Spurs: O/U 233.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 53¢ · $13K held · ends Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 80%
$12.8K
$23.4
52.2¢ → 52.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 53%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 52.3¢ | $13.3K | $7.0K | +$27.56 | 54% 16758-14063 (30821) |
 RollAwayTheDew | Underavg 52¢ | $5.2K | $5.2K | +$0 | 53% 301-270 (571) |
A8 a8999CTR | Overavg 48¢ | $413.6 | $409.29 | -$4.31 | 44% 1070-1359 (2429) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 52¢ | $130 | $130 | +$0 | 58% 40486-29261 (69747) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 53.2¢ | $38.3 | $38.88 | +$0.15 | 58% 27891-20538 (48429) |
Invested
$13,269.64
Value
$7.0K
PnL
+$27.56
Record
54%
16758-14063 (30821)
RollAwayTheDewInvested
$5,220.82
Value
$5.2K
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
301-270 (571)
Invested
$413.6
Value
$409.29
PnL
-$4.31
Record
44%
1070-1359 (2429)
VeryLucky888Invested
$130
Value
$130
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
40486-29261 (69747)
Invested
$38.3
Value
$38.88
PnL
+$0.15
Record
58%
27891-20538 (48429)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.