Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Kings vs. Spurs: O/U 231.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (70%) · Under at 50¢ · $12K held · ends Oct 28

Over51¢Under49¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 70%

Total Value

$11.9K

Combined PnL

$66.41

Smart Money Entry

50.4¢ → 49.5¢

-2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$8.8K

Total Shares17,188

Combined PnL-$2.61

Over3 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares6,195

Combined PnL+$69.02

Under — 70%Over — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 50.1¢	$6.4K	$6.4K	+$51.25	54% 16731-14038 (30769)
Reformedx	Overavg 48¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$80	52% 769-714 (1483)
WO woshikd99CTR	Underavg 52¢	$973.44	$936	-$37.44	—
MO mooseborzoii	Overavg 50¢	$915	$905.85	-$9.15	50% 1111-1110 (2221)
SE sentrioCTR	Underavg 50.1¢	$580.44	$584.54	+$4.1	50% 24824-24520 (49344)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Underavg 52¢	$520	$500	-$20	53% 5466-4812 (10278)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 50¢	$292	$292	+$0	52% 4642-4346 (8988)
0X 0x443BCCe588E26763987e9Ae44b6b7845F09Fe8bB-1769536380439	Overavg 50¢	$182.5	$180.68	-$1.82	48% 336-359 (695)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 50.5¢	$41.46	$41.75	+$0.29	58% 27868-20501 (48369)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 54¢	$10.8	$10	-$0.8	56% 6836-5476 (12312)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$6,360.44

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$51.25

Record

54%

16731-14038 (30769)

Reformedx

Over

Invested

$1,920

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$80

Record

52%

769-714 (1483)

woshikd99CTR

Under

Invested

$973.44

Value

$936

PnL

-$37.44

Record

—

mooseborzoii

Over

Invested

$915

Value

$905.85

PnL

-$9.15

Record

50%

1111-1110 (2221)

sentrioCTR

Under

Invested

$580.44

Value

$584.54

PnL

+$4.1

Record

50%

24824-24520 (49344)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Under

Invested

$520

Value

$500

PnL

-$20

Record

53%

5466-4812 (10278)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$292

Value

$292

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

4642-4346 (8988)

0x443BCCe588E26763987e9Ae44b6b7845F09Fe8bB-1769536380439

Over

Invested

$182.5

Value

$180.68

PnL

-$1.82

Record

48%

336-359 (695)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$41.46

Value

$41.75

PnL

+$0.29

Record

58%

27868-20501 (48369)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.8

Value

$10

PnL

-$0.8

Record

56%

6836-5476 (12312)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.