Kings vs. Spurs: O/U 229.5

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 55¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 28

Over55¢Under45¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

$18.4

Smart Money Entry

53.8¢ → 54.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over55%

Under46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares4,972

Combined PnL+$17.95

Under2 traders

Total Value$61.78

Total Shares114

Combined PnL+$0.46

Over — 75%Under — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 46¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	-$6.61	54% 16731-14038 (30769)
└ Under leg	Underavg 46¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$27.58
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$20.97
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Overavg 54¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$17.61	47% 2366-2637 (5003)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Overavg 54¢	$540	$545	+$5	53% 5466-4812 (10278)
Reformedx	Overavg 52¢	$101.24	$97.34	-$3.89	52% 769-714 (1483)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 54¢	$259.12	$84.61	-$1.67	58% 40372-29160 (69532)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 46.2¢	$51.44	$51.03	-$0.4	58% 27868-20501 (48369)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Overavg 49¢	$39.2	$40	+$0.8	50% 6745-6752 (13497)
0xheavy888<$100	Overavg 54¢	$10.8	$10.9	+$0.1	56% 6836-5476 (12312)
BA BayupatiCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$9.89	$10.75	+$0.86	50% 182-179 (361)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$3,419.7

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$6.61

Record

54%

16731-14038 (30769)

Both legs:

Under$2,329.0446¢-$27.58

Over$1,090.6653.5¢+$20.97

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Over

Invested

$1,902.11

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$17.61

Record

47%

2366-2637 (5003)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Over

Invested

$540

Value

$545

PnL

+$5

Record

53%

5466-4812 (10278)

Reformedx

Over

Invested

$101.24

Value

$97.34

PnL

-$3.89

Record

52%

769-714 (1483)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$259.12

Value

$84.61

PnL

-$1.67

Record

58%

40372-29160 (69532)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$51.44

Value

$51.03

PnL

-$0.4

Record

58%

27868-20501 (48369)

Forecastication2<$100

Over

Invested

$39.2

Value

$40

PnL

+$0.8

Record

50%

6745-6752 (13497)

0xheavy888<$100

Over

Invested

$10.8

Value

$10.9

PnL

+$0.1

Record

56%

6836-5476 (12312)

BayupatiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.89

Value

$10.75

PnL

+$0.86

Record

50%

182-179 (361)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.