Spread: Spurs (-29.5)

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (50%) · Kings at 52¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 28

Spurs48¢Kings52¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Kings

Consensus Traders

Kings 50%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.5K

Combined PnL

$667.94

Smart Money Entry

56.6¢ → 52¢

-8% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidKings at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

2 of 4 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs48%

Kings52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kings2 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares5,251

Combined PnL+$820.54

Spurs2 traders

Total Value$819.3

Total Shares1,717

Combined PnL-$152.59

Kings — 50%Spurs — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Kingsavg 56.6¢	$3.6K	$4.4K	+$802.99	54% 16767-14068 (30835)
MO mooseborzoiiARB<$100	Kingsavg 47.4¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$133.3	50% 1112-1112 (2224)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 47.4¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$179.96
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 48.4¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$46.66
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Kingsavg 50.6¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$48.85	54% 3774-3233 (7007)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 50.6¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$1.26
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 51.7¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$47.59
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Spursavg 48.8¢	$702.77	$713.76	+$10.99	48% 500-532 (1032)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Kingsavg 51¢	$151.65	$164.82	+$13.17	54% 10411-9036 (19447)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 51¢	$114.34	$124.32	+$9.98
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 41¢	$37.31	$40.5	+$3.18
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Spursavg 51¢	$269.12	$105.54	-$163.59	54% 568-482 (1050)
HRTradingARB<$100	Kingsavg 51.6¢	$53.16	$56.44	+$3.28	53% 2815-2479 (5294)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 51.6¢	$31.09	$32.26	+$1.17
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 42.4¢	$22.07	$24.18	+$2.11
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Kingsavg 53¢	$34.45	$52	+$17.55	50% 3682-3663 (7345)

HomeRunHazard

Kings

Invested

$3,646.32

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$802.99

Record

54%

16767-14068 (30835)

mooseborzoiiARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$2,573.7

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$133.3

Record

50%

1112-1112 (2224)

Both legs:

Kings$1,40047.4¢+$179.96

Spurs$1,173.748.4¢-$46.66

takeormakeARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$2,298.85

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$48.85

Record

54%

3774-3233 (7007)

Both legs:

Kings$1,159.7350.6¢-$1.26

Spurs$1,139.1251.7¢-$47.59

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Spurs

Invested

$702.77

Value

$713.76

PnL

+$10.99

Record

48%

500-532 (1032)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$151.65

Value

$164.82

PnL

+$13.17

Record

54%

10411-9036 (19447)

Both legs:

Kings$114.3451¢+$9.98

Spurs$37.3141¢+$3.18

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Spurs

Invested

$269.12

Value

$105.54

PnL

-$163.59

Record

54%

568-482 (1050)

HRTradingARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$53.16

Value

$56.44

PnL

+$3.28

Record

53%

2815-2479 (5294)

Both legs:

Kings$31.0951.6¢+$1.17

Spurs$22.0742.4¢+$2.11

NatoAlfista<$100

Kings

Invested

$34.45

Value

$52

PnL

+$17.55

Record

50%

3682-3663 (7345)

Research grade

AvoidKings at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Kings

2 of 4 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.2%

52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$84.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

184.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.