Spread: Spurs (-25.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (60%) · Spurs at 59¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Spurs
5
Spurs 60%
$5.7K
$383.52
61.3¢ → 58.5¢
-5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidSpurs at 59%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Kingsavg 46¢ | $2.0K | $2.7K | +$666.96 | 48% 500-532 (1032) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Spursavg 58.7¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | -$10.18 | 54% 16767-14068 (30835) |
 aibaby | Spursavg 67.8¢ | $703.38 | $362.98 | -$340.4 | 51% 87-82 (169) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Kingsavg 34.3¢ | $187.65 | $264.89 | +$77.24 | 54% 3774-3233 (7007) |
 HRTrading | Spursavg 52.9¢ | $113.54 | $103.44 | -$10.1 | 53% 2815-2479 (5294) |
Invested
$1,997.1
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$666.96
Record
48%
500-532 (1032)
Invested
$2,334.08
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$10.18
Record
54%
16767-14068 (30835)
aibabyInvested
$703.38
Value
$362.98
PnL
-$340.4
Record
51%
87-82 (169)
Invested
$187.65
Value
$264.89
PnL
+$77.24
Record
54%
3774-3233 (7007)
HRTradingInvested
$113.54
Value
$103.44
PnL
-$10.1
Record
53%
2815-2479 (5294)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.