Spread: Spurs (-23.5)

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (63%) · Spurs at 63¢ · $19K held · ended Oct 28

Spurs63¢Kings37¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Spurs

Consensus Traders

Spurs 63%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.3K

Combined PnL

-$975.55

Smart Money Entry

66¢ → 62.5¢

-5% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs63%

Kings38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spurs5 traders

Total Value$13.0K

Total Shares21,142

Combined PnL-$947.05

Kings3 traders

Total Value$857.35

Total Shares2,161

Combined PnL-$28.5

Spurs — 63%Kings — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
aibaby	Spursavg 66.3¢	$13.3K	$12.3K	-$951.93	51% 84-81 (165)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Kingsavg 44.9¢	$5.5K	$5.3K	-$230.12	54% 16761-14066 (30827)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 44.9¢	$3.5K	$3.0K	-$457.04
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 54.9¢	$2.0K	$2.3K	+$226.91
AN Anon455CTR	Kingsavg 40.2¢	$629.99	$617.06	-$12.93	56% 2590-2035 (4625)
FR frohp5	Spursavg 66¢	$500	$488.64	-$11.36	65% 1960-1044 (3004)
TA takeormakeCTR	Kingsavg 38¢	$213.94	$199.86	-$14.08	54% 3774-3233 (7007)
BE berlinskies	Spursavg 66¢	$159.99	$156.35	-$3.64	58% 5738-4212 (9950)
HRTradingARB<$100	Spursavg 41¢	$111.46	$142.46	+$31	54% 2744-2368 (5112)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 41¢	$59.04	$88.56	+$29.52
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 37.4¢	$52.42	$53.9	+$1.48
RollAwayTheDew<$100	Spursavg 36¢	$37.44	$52	+$14.56	53% 301-270 (571)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Kingsavg 64.1¢	$41.92	$40.43	-$1.49	58% 27917-20560 (48477)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Spursavg 36¢	$13.68	$19	+$5.32	50% 6756-6757 (13513)

aibaby

Spurs

Invested

$13,251.9

Value

$12.3K

PnL

-$951.93

Record

51%

84-81 (165)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$5,510.95

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$230.12

Record

54%

16761-14066 (30827)

Both legs:

Kings$3,477.6444.9¢-$457.04

Spurs$2,033.3254.9¢+$226.91

Anon455CTR

Kings

Invested

$629.99

Value

$617.06

PnL

-$12.93

Record

56%

2590-2035 (4625)

frohp5

Spurs

Invested

$500

Value

$488.64

PnL

-$11.36

Record

65%

1960-1044 (3004)

takeormakeCTR

Kings

Invested

$213.94

Value

$199.86

PnL

-$14.08

Record

54%

3774-3233 (7007)

berlinskies

Spurs

Invested

$159.99

Value

$156.35

PnL

-$3.64

Record

58%

5738-4212 (9950)

HRTradingARB<$100

Spurs

Invested

$111.46

Value

$142.46

PnL

+$31

Record

54%

2744-2368 (5112)

Both legs:

Spurs$59.0441¢+$29.52

Kings$52.4237.4¢+$1.48

RollAwayTheDew<$100

Spurs

Invested

$37.44

Value

$52

PnL

+$14.56

Record

53%

301-270 (571)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$41.92

Value

$40.43

PnL

-$1.49

Record

58%

27917-20560 (48477)

Forecastication2<$100

Spurs

Invested

$13.68

Value

$19

PnL

+$5.32

Record

50%

6756-6757 (13513)

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spurs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.