Spread: Spurs (-22.5)

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (33%) · Spurs at 81¢ · $26K held · ended Oct 28

Spurs81¢Kings19¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Spurs

Consensus Traders

Spurs 33%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

67¢ → 80.5¢

+20% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 81%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs81%

Kings20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spurs2 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares10,021

Combined PnL-$446.38

Kings4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,591

Combined PnL-$647.85

Spurs — 33%Kings — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKings 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrKings 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Kings 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Spursavg 49.9¢	$24.2K	$12.8K	+$281.14	54% 16767-14068 (30835)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 49.9¢	$7.4K	$9.2K	+$1.9K
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 54.4¢	$5.1K	$3.5K	$-1.6K
aibaby	Spursavg 67¢	$6.7K	$6.2K	-$450	51% 87-82 (169)
GA gagarin59ARB<$100	Spursavg 47¢	$6.3K	$3.2K	+$449.67	52% 639-583 (1222)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 47¢	$1.5K	$2.2K	+$670.11
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 39¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$220.44
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Kingsavg 48.4¢	$8.5K	$1.8K	-$401.8	56% 2595-2041 (4636)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 48.4¢	$1.7K	$1.1K	-$607.13
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 49.7¢	$527.48	$732.9	+$205.33
NooseracCTR	Kingsavg 56¢	$3.4K	$1.3K	-$620.97	52% 5696-5265 (10961)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Kingsavg 27.9¢	$496.81	$514.89	+$18.08	54% 3774-3233 (7007)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 27.9¢	$284.66	$300.6	+$15.94
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 69.8¢	$212.15	$214.28	+$2.14
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Kingsavg 49.2¢	$186.35	$68.02	-$23.73	48% 500-532 (1032)
HRTrading<$100	Spursavg 43¢	$11.26	$14.88	+$3.62	53% 2815-2479 (5294)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Kingsavg 61¢	$10.35	$10.2	-$0.15	58% 27963-20593 (48556)
TO torta.techCTR<$100	Kingsavg 49¢	$9.8	$6.8	-$3	63% 7960-4740 (12700)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Spurs

Invested

$24,191.32

Value

$12.8K

PnL

+$281.14

Record

54%

16767-14068 (30835)

Both legs:

Spurs$7,376.6349.9¢+$1.9K

Kings$5,112.9754.4¢$-1.6K

aibaby

Spurs

Invested

$6,699.99

Value

$6.2K

PnL

-$450

Record

51%

87-82 (169)

gagarin59ARB<$100

Spurs

Invested

$6,340.18

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$449.67

Record

52%

639-583 (1222)

Both legs:

Spurs$1,499.7747¢+$670.11

Kings$1,228.1839¢-$220.44

Anon455ARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$8,527.01

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$401.8

Record

56%

2595-2041 (4636)

Both legs:

Kings$1,690.4548.4¢-$607.13

Spurs$527.4849.7¢+$205.33

NooseracCTR

Kings

Invested

$3,354.76

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$620.97

Record

52%

5696-5265 (10961)

takeormakeARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$496.81

Value

$514.89

PnL

+$18.08

Record

54%

3774-3233 (7007)

Both legs:

Kings$284.6627.9¢+$15.94

Spurs$212.1569.8¢+$2.14

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Kings

Invested

$186.35

Value

$68.02

PnL

-$23.73

Record

48%

500-532 (1032)

HRTrading<$100

Spurs

Invested

$11.26

Value

$14.88

PnL

+$3.62

Record

53%

2815-2479 (5294)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$10.35

Value

$10.2

PnL

-$0.15

Record

58%

27963-20593 (48556)

torta.techCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$9.8

Value

$6.8

PnL

-$3

Record

63%

7960-4740 (12700)

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 81%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKings 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrKings 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Kings 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spurs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.