Spread: Spurs (-21.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (83%) · Kings at 59¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Kings
6
Kings 83%
$10.9K
$29.04
58.8¢ → 59¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidKings at 59%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Kingsavg 58.9¢ | $4.2K | $4.2K | +$6.37 | 54% 16761-14066 (30827) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Spursavg 41¢ | $4.1K | $4.1K | -$0 | 54% 3774-3233 (7007) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080 | Kingsavg 59¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$0 | 51% 1228-1166 (2394) |
 VeryLucky888 | Kingsavg 58¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$20 | 58% 40527-29300 (69827) |
 RN1 | Kingsavg 58¢ | $145 | $147.5 | +$2.5 | 54% 55451-47514 (102965) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Kingsavg 58.5¢ | $19.89 | $20.06 | +$0.17 | 58% 27917-20560 (48477) |
Invested
$4,206.58
Value
$4.2K
PnL
+$6.37
Record
54%
16761-14066 (30827)
Invested
$4,082.23
Value
$4.1K
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
3774-3233 (7007)
Invested
$1,298
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
1228-1166 (2394)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,160
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$20
Record
58%
40527-29300 (69827)
RN1Invested
$145
Value
$147.5
PnL
+$2.5
Record
54%
55451-47514 (102965)
Invested
$19.89
Value
$20.06
PnL
+$0.17
Record
58%
27917-20560 (48477)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.