Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Kings, while the market favors Spurs (74%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Spurs (-20.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (50%) · Kings at 27¢ · $21K held · ended Oct 28

Spurs74¢Kings26¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Kings

Consensus Traders

Kings 50%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.0K

Combined PnL

-$87.02

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 26.5¢

-51% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidKings at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Spurs 74%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs74%

Kings27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kings5 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares7,173

Combined PnL-$83.43

Spurs5 traders

Total Value$731.27

Total Shares1,007

Combined PnL-$3.59

Kings — 50%Spurs — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Kings) and the top 1000 (5 on Spurs) disagree here.

whaleKings 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrSpurs 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedKings 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Spurs 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Kingsavg 53.5¢	$11.6K	$10.4K	$-1.2K	54% 16761-14066 (30827)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 53.5¢	$8.5K	$7.1K	$-1.3K
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 52.3¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$161.52
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Kingsavg 46.5¢	$2.6K	$2.8K	+$140.23	56% 2590-2035 (4625)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 48¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$183.55
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 46.5¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$43.32
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Spursavg 49.2¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$94.22	48% 500-532 (1032)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 49.2¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$86.88
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 47.5¢	$640.04	$647.39	+$7.34
EL ElectricyCTR	Kingsavg 56¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$15.57	62% 369-231 (600)
MO mooseborzoiiCTR	Kingsavg 50.9¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$55.92	50% 1112-1112 (2224)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100	Spursavg 47.6¢	$868	$904	+$36	51% 1228-1166 (2394)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 47.6¢	$476	$520	+$44
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 49¢	$392	$384	-$8
FR frohp5	Spursavg 75¢	$500	$496.67	-$3.33	65% 1960-1044 (3004)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Kingsavg 57¢	$481.07	$472.63	-$12.66	62% 4008-2448 (6456)
BE berlinskies	Spursavg 76¢	$159.99	$156.83	-$3.16	58% 5738-4212 (9950)
RN1CTR	Kingsavg 56¢	$140	$140	-$0	54% 55451-47514 (102965)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Spursavg 42¢	$75.4	$83.12	+$7.72	54% 10411-9036 (19447)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 42¢	$39.9	$47.98	+$8.08
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 50¢	$35.5	$35.14	-$0.35
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Spursavg 42.7¢	$47.63	$48.07	+$0.26	58% 27917-20560 (48477)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Spursavg 41¢	$18.45	$19.8	+$1.58	50% 6756-6757 (13513)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Kingsavg 55¢	$48.21	$17.37	+$0.72	58% 40527-29300 (69827)
HRTrading<$100	Spursavg 46.3¢	$8.83	$9.9	+$1.06	54% 2744-2368 (5112)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$11,626.35

Value

$10.4K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

54%

16761-14066 (30827)

Both legs:

Kings$8,454.2453.5¢$-1.3K

Spurs$3,172.1152.3¢+$161.52

Anon455ARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$2,643.78

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$140.23

Record

56%

2590-2035 (4625)

Both legs:

Spurs$1,264.0748¢+$183.55

Kings$1,379.7246.5¢-$43.32

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Spurs

Invested

$2,148.74

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$94.22

Record

48%

500-532 (1032)

Both legs:

Spurs$1,508.749.2¢+$86.88

Kings$640.0447.5¢+$7.34

ElectricyCTR

Kings

Invested

$1,743.55

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$15.57

Record

62%

369-231 (600)

mooseborzoiiCTR

Kings

Invested

$1,493.84

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$55.92

Record

50%

1112-1112 (2224)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100

Spurs

Invested

$868

Value

$904

PnL

+$36

Record

51%

1228-1166 (2394)

Both legs:

Invested

$500

Value

$496.67

PnL

-$3.33

Record

65%

1960-1044 (3004)

SunlineTickerCTR

Kings

Invested

$481.07

Value

$472.63

PnL

-$12.66

Record

62%

4008-2448 (6456)

berlinskies

Spurs

Invested

$159.99

Value

$156.83

PnL

-$3.16

Record

58%

5738-4212 (9950)

RN1CTR

Kings

Invested

$140

Value

$140

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

55451-47514 (102965)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Spurs

Invested

$75.4

Value

$83.12

PnL

+$7.72

Record

54%

10411-9036 (19447)

Both legs:

Invested

$47.63

Value

$48.07

PnL

+$0.26

Record

58%

27917-20560 (48477)

Forecastication2<$100

Spurs

Invested

$18.45

Value

$19.8

PnL

+$1.58

Record

50%

6756-6757 (13513)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$48.21

Value

$17.37

PnL

+$0.72

Record

58%

40527-29300 (69827)

HRTrading<$100

Spurs

Invested

$8.83

Value

$9.9

PnL

+$1.06

Record

54%

2744-2368 (5112)

Research grade

AvoidKings at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Spurs 74%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Kings) and the top 1000 (5 on Spurs) disagree here.

whaleKings 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrSpurs 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedKings 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Spurs 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.5%

26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$250.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

350.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.