Spread: Spurs (-19.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (33%) · Kings at 54¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Kings
6
Kings 33%
1 arb excluded
$6.8K
$13.55
54¢ → 53.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidKings at 54%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VI vibing123 | Kingsavg 54¢ | $4.9K | $4.9K | +$0 | 52% 1534-1419 (2953) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Spursavg 46¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$12.97 | 54% 16747-14056 (30803) |
SU SunlineTickerCTR | Spursavg 46¢ | $362.48 | $362.48 | -$0 | 62% 4008-2448 (6456) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Kingsavg 54¢ | $250 | $250 | -$1.25 | 54% 55371-47422 (102793) |
| └ Kings leg | Kingsavg 54¢ | $135 | $135 | -$1.25 | |
| └ Spurs leg | Spursavg 46¢ | $115 | $115 | +$0 | |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Kingsavg 53.8¢ | $61.37 | $61.86 | +$0.49 | 58% 27876-20518 (48394) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100 | Spursavg 46¢ | $20.47 | $20.47 | -$0 | 50% 3678-3654 (7332) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Spursavg 46¢ | $7.82 | $7.91 | +$0.08 | 54% 2625-2252 (4877) |
Invested
$4,859.98
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
1534-1419 (2953)
Invested
$1,193.66
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$12.97
Record
54%
16747-14056 (30803)
Invested
$362.48
Value
$362.48
PnL
-$0
Record
62%
4008-2448 (6456)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$250
Value
$250
PnL
-$1.25
Record
54%
55371-47422 (102793)
Both legs:
Invested
$61.37
Value
$61.86
PnL
+$0.49
Record
58%
27876-20518 (48394)
Invested
$20.47
Value
$20.47
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
3678-3654 (7332)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$7.82
Value
$7.91
PnL
+$0.08
Record
54%
2625-2252 (4877)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.