Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Kings, while the market favors Spurs (54%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Spurs (-17.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (67%) · Kings at 47¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Kings
6
Kings 67%
$2.6K
$55.73
48.4¢ → 46.5¢
-4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidKings at 47%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Spurs 54%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WO woshikd99CTR | Kingsavg 49¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$29.92 | — |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Kingsavg 47¢ | $470 | $500 | +$30 | 53% 5466-4812 (10278) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Spursavg 50¢ | $244.46 | $244.57 | +$0.1 | 54% 16731-14038 (30769) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Kingsavg 47.4¢ | $371.16 | $198.96 | -$4.98 | 58% 40372-29160 (69532) |
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF<$100 | Spursavg 50¢ | $97.5 | $97.5 | +$0 | 54% 368-319 (687) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Kingsavg 48.9¢ | $31.32 | $32 | +$0.68 | 58% 27868-20501 (48369) |
Invested
$1,466.08
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$29.92
Record
—
Invested
$470
Value
$500
PnL
+$30
Record
53%
5466-4812 (10278)
Invested
$244.46
Value
$244.57
PnL
+$0.1
Record
54%
16731-14038 (30769)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$371.16
Value
$198.96
PnL
-$4.98
Record
58%
40372-29160 (69532)
Invested
$97.5
Value
$97.5
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
368-319 (687)
Invested
$31.32
Value
$32
PnL
+$0.68
Record
58%
27868-20501 (48369)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.