Spread: Spurs (-16.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (67%) · Spurs at 59¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 28

Spurs59¢Kings41¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Spurs

Consensus Traders

Spurs 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

$93.64

Smart Money Entry

57.3¢ → 58.5¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs59%

Kings42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spurs6 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares10,376

Combined PnL+$92.83

Kings3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,956

Combined PnL+$0.81

Spurs — 67%Kings — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSpurs 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpSpurs 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSpurs 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedSpurs 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Spurs 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Spursavg 58¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$20	58% 40486-29261 (69747)
HO HomeRunHazard	Spursavg 57.8¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$8.09	54% 16758-14063 (30821)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF	Spursavg 54.9¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$62.4	54% 368-319 (687)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Kingsavg 42¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0	62% 4008-2448 (6456)
RN1	Spursavg 57.5¢	$280.92	$283.18	+$2.34	54% 55411-47463 (102874)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Kingsavg 42¢	$126	$124.5	+$1.5	53% 301-270 (571)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Spursavg 57.6¢	$87.35	$85.51	-$1.84	58% 27891-20538 (48429)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 57.6¢	$50.72	$51.48	+$0.76
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 44.7¢	$36.63	$34.03	-$2.6
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Kingsavg 42¢	$57.96	$57.27	-$0.69	50% 6752-6755 (13507)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Spursavg 58¢	$21.17	$21.17	+$0	50% 3679-3657 (7336)
WO woshikd99<$100	Spursavg 58¢	$15.08	$15.08	-$0	55% 24-20 (44)

VeryLucky888

Spurs

Invested

$2,320

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$20

Record

58%

40486-29261 (69747)

HomeRunHazard

Spurs

Invested

$2,209.02

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$8.09

Record

54%

16758-14063 (30821)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF

Spurs

Invested

$1,106.3

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$62.4

Record

54%

368-319 (687)

SunlineTickerCTR

Kings

Invested

$1,057.56

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

62%

4008-2448 (6456)

RN1

Spurs

Invested

$280.92

Value

$283.18

PnL

+$2.34

Record

54%

55411-47463 (102874)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Kings

Invested

$126

Value

$124.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

53%

301-270 (571)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Spurs

Invested

$87.35

Value

$85.51

PnL

-$1.84

Record

58%

27891-20538 (48429)

Both legs:

Spurs$50.7257.6¢+$0.76

Kings$36.6344.7¢-$2.6

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$57.96

Value

$57.27

PnL

-$0.69

Record

50%

6752-6755 (13507)

NatoAlfista<$100

Spurs

Invested

$21.17

Value

$21.17

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

3679-3657 (7336)

woshikd99<$100

Spurs

Invested

$15.08

Value

$15.08

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

24-20 (44)

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSpurs 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpSpurs 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSpurs 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedSpurs 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Spurs 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spurs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.