Spread: Spurs (-14.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (80%) · Spurs at 64¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Spurs
5
Spurs 80%
$2.0K
$22.99
61.8¢ → 64¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidSpurs at 64%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SunlineTicker | Spursavg 62¢ | $789.69 | $802.42 | +$12.74 | 62% 4008-2448 (6456) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Kingsavg 38¢ | $679.44 | $679.44 | +$0 | 50% 6752-6755 (13507) |
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF | Spursavg 61¢ | $298.9 | $308.7 | +$9.8 | 54% 368-319 (687) |
 RN1 | Spursavg 63¢ | $120.96 | $120.96 | +$0 | 54% 55411-47463 (102874) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Spursavg 61.6¢ | $43.03 | $43.67 | +$0.46 | 58% 27891-20538 (48429) |
Invested
$789.69
Value
$802.42
PnL
+$12.74
Record
62%
4008-2448 (6456)
Invested
$679.44
Value
$679.44
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
6752-6755 (13507)
Invested
$298.9
Value
$308.7
PnL
+$9.8
Record
54%
368-319 (687)
RN1Invested
$120.96
Value
$120.96
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
55411-47463 (102874)
Invested
$43.03
Value
$43.67
PnL
+$0.46
Record
58%
27891-20538 (48429)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.