Kings vs. Pelicans: O/U 238.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 54¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 30

Over47¢Under53¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

-$199.88

Smart Money Entry

52.9¢ → 53.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares7,163

Combined PnL-$210.28

Over2 traders

Total Value$266.43

Total Shares421

Combined PnL+$10.39

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941	Underavg 53¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$144.23	89% 242-30 (272)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 52.8¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$66.05	54% 16999-14246 (31245)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Overavg 47¢	$174.73	$179.93	+$5.2	53% 361-318 (679)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$81.31	$86.5	+$5.19	50% 6895-6893 (13788)

0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941

Under

Invested

$2,547.99

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$144.23

Record

89%

242-30 (272)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$1,243.92

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$66.05

Record

54%

16999-14246 (31245)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Over

Invested

$174.73

Value

$179.93

PnL

+$5.2

Record

53%

361-318 (679)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$81.31

Value

$86.5

PnL

+$5.19

Record

50%

6895-6893 (13788)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.