Kings vs. Pelicans: O/U 236.5

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 51¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 30

Over50¢Under50¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.4K

Combined PnL

-$3.93

Smart Money Entry

48.3¢ → 50.5¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares8,881

Combined PnL-$222.03

Under4 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares9,697

Combined PnL+$218.1

Over — 20%Under — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 52¢	$4.6K	$4.4K	-$222.03	53% 3930-3422 (7352)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 48.3¢	$3.4K	$3.6K	+$153.99	54% 17003-14250 (31253)
RollAwayTheDew	Underavg 48¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$63.88	53% 361-319 (680)
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$147.98	$146.51	-$1.47	54% 3276-2822 (6098)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$87.19	$86.32	-$0.87
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$60.79	$60.19	-$0.6
BU BullishBarb<$100	Underavg 50¢	$14.38	$14.52	+$0.14	43% 3532-4771 (8303)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 50¢	$8.5	$8.59	+$0.09	58% 28254-20837 (49091)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$4,618.15

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$222.03

Record

53%

3930-3422 (7352)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$3,429.83

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$153.99

Record

54%

17003-14250 (31253)

RollAwayTheDew

Under

Invested

$1,226.43

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$63.88

Record

53%

361-319 (680)

HerdoniaARB<$100

Over

Invested

$147.98

Value

$146.51

PnL

-$1.47

Record

54%

3276-2822 (6098)

Both legs:

Invested

$14.38

Value

$14.52

PnL

+$0.14

Record

43%

3532-4771 (8303)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$8.5

Value

$8.59

PnL

+$0.09

Record

58%

28254-20837 (49091)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.