Kings vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 52¢ · $23K held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Over
8
Over 75%
$22.8K
$79.61
51¢ → 51.5¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 52%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+42 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 FeedTheBigBird | Overavg 51¢ | $10.2K | $10.3K | +$100 | 46% 46-54 (100) |
 ComingBackCTR | Underavg 49¢ | $4.7K | $4.7K | -$48.24 | 61% 3900-2449 (6349) |
AY ay118 | Overavg 51¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$0 | 48% 14-15 (29) |
FF ff3364 | Overavg 51¢ | $2.5K | $2.6K | +$24.99 | 50% 793-798 (1591) |
0X 0x443BCCe588E26763987e9Ae44b6b7845F09Fe8bB-1769536380439 | Overavg 51¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$0 | 49% 349-362 (711) |
HE Herdonia | Overavg 51.3¢ | $796.19 | $798.81 | +$2.62 | 54% 3276-2828 (6104) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $32.64 | $32.96 | +$0.32 | 58% 28255-20837 (49092) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $7.84 | $7.84 | -$0.08 | 50% 6901-6894 (13795) |
FeedTheBigBirdInvested
$10,200
Value
$10.3K
PnL
+$100
Record
46%
46-54 (100)
ComingBackCTRInvested
$4,727.02
Value
$4.7K
PnL
-$48.24
Record
61%
3900-2449 (6349)
Invested
$3,000
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
14-15 (29)
Invested
$2,548.98
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$24.99
Record
50%
793-798 (1591)
Invested
$1,392.3
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
349-362 (711)
Invested
$796.19
Value
$798.81
PnL
+$2.62
Record
54%
3276-2828 (6104)
Invested
$32.64
Value
$32.96
PnL
+$0.32
Record
58%
28255-20837 (49092)
Invested
$7.84
Value
$7.84
PnL
-$0.08
Record
50%
6901-6894 (13795)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.