Kings vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (27%) · Under at 68¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 30

Over33¢Under67¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 27%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$58.64

Smart Money Entry

47.9¢ → 67.5¢

+41% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 68%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over33%

Under68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,611

Combined PnL+$54.61

Over8 traders

Total Value$561.1

Total Shares1,032

Combined PnL+$4.04

Under — 27%Over — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 47.9¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$55.03	54% 17016-14265 (31281)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Overavg 50¢	$291.11	$294.21	+$3.1	54% 3276-2828 (6104)
WO woshikd99CTR	Overavg 49¢	$146.02	$144.53	-$1.49	54% 98-83 (181)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$52.92	$55.62	+$2.7	54% 10577-9177 (19754)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$24.99	$23.77	-$1.22	50% 3765-3738 (7503)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$18.35	$18.71	+$0.36	58% 28272-20850 (49122)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$11.04	$11.26	+$0.22	57% 13390-10234 (23624)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Underavg 49¢	$9.8	$9.6	-$0.2	50% 6908-6896 (13804)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$6.63	$7	+$0.37	52% 3772-3441 (7213)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$11.12	$6	+$0	58% 41297-29942 (71239)
CH chiefphi<$100	Underavg 59¢	$2.95	$2.73	-$0.23	52% 98-91 (189)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$1,238.21

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$55.03

Record

54%

17016-14265 (31281)

HerdoniaCTR

Over

Invested

$291.11

Value

$294.21

PnL

+$3.1

Record

54%

3276-2828 (6104)

woshikd99CTR

Over

Invested

$146.02

Value

$144.53

PnL

-$1.49

Record

54%

98-83 (181)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$52.92

Value

$55.62

PnL

+$2.7

Record

54%

10577-9177 (19754)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$24.99

Value

$23.77

PnL

-$1.22

Record

50%

3765-3738 (7503)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$18.35

Value

$18.71

PnL

+$0.36

Record

58%

28272-20850 (49122)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.04

Value

$11.26

PnL

+$0.22

Record

57%

13390-10234 (23624)

Forecastication2<$100

Under

Invested

$9.8

Value

$9.6

PnL

-$0.2

Record

50%

6908-6896 (13804)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.63

Value

PnL

+$0.37

Record

52%

3772-3441 (7213)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.12

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

41297-29942 (71239)

chiefphi<$100

Under

Invested

$2.95

Value

$2.73

PnL

-$0.23

Record

52%

98-91 (189)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 68%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.