Kings vs. Pelicans: O/U 232.5

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 81¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 30

Over81¢Under19¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 38%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$249.53

Smart Money Entry

44.9¢ → 80.5¢

+80% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 81%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over81%

Under20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,355

Combined PnL+$239.16

Under5 traders

Total Value$633.71

Total Shares1,402

Combined PnL+$10.36

Over — 38%Under — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Overavg 44.4¢	$1.0K	$1.3K	+$241.23	53% 3934-3425 (7359)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 44¢	$456.91	$467.18	+$10.27	54% 17021-14267 (31288)
WO woshikd99CTR<$100	Underavg 38¢	$57.76	$68.4	+$10.64	54% 98-83 (181)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Underavg 51¢	$58.14	$51.3	-$6.84	54% 10577-9177 (19754)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$48.51	$44.55	-$3.96	59% 30249-20952 (51201)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 60¢	$29.52	$27.9	-$1.62	52% 3834-3490 (7324)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Overavg 56¢	$24.78	$24.34	-$0.44	50% 3766-3742 (7508)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$2.02	$2.28	+$0.25	57% 13416-10256 (23672)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$1,012.63

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$241.23

Record

53%

3934-3425 (7359)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$456.91

Value

$467.18

PnL

+$10.27

Record

54%

17021-14267 (31288)

woshikd99CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$57.76

Value

$68.4

PnL

+$10.64

Record

54%

98-83 (181)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$58.14

Value

$51.3

PnL

-$6.84

Record

54%

10577-9177 (19754)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$48.51

Value

$44.55

PnL

-$3.96

Record

59%

30249-20952 (51201)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$29.52

Value

$27.9

PnL

-$1.62

Record

52%

3834-3490 (7324)

NatoAlfista<$100

Over

Invested

$24.78

Value

$24.34

PnL

-$0.44

Record

50%

3766-3742 (7508)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.02

Value

$2.28

PnL

+$0.25

Record

57%

13416-10256 (23672)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 81%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.