Spread: Pelicans (-8.5)

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (60%) · Kings at 59¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 30

Pelicans42¢Kings58¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Kings

Consensus Traders

Kings 60%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$76.72

Smart Money Entry

59.8¢ → 58.5¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidKings at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Pelicans42%

Kings59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kings3 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,084

Combined PnL-$202.93

Pelicans2 traders

Total Value$700.67

Total Shares1,401

Combined PnL+$126.2

Kings — 60%Pelicans — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Kingsavg 60¢	$947.61	$789.7	-$157.9	54% 16927-14186 (31113)
TA takeormakeCTR	Pelicansavg 41¢	$571.13	$696.5	+$125.37	54% 3863-3352 (7215)
VeryLucky888	Kingsavg 59¢	$295	$250	-$45	58% 41092-29767 (70859)
BU BullishBarbCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 40¢	$3.33	$4.17	+$0.83	42% 3463-4692 (8155)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Kingsavg 59¢	$2.95	$2.93	-$0.03	47% 2131-2421 (4552)

HomeRunHazard

Kings

Invested

$947.61

Value

$789.7

PnL

-$157.9

Record

54%

16927-14186 (31113)

takeormakeCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$571.13

Value

$696.5

PnL

+$125.37

Record

54%

3863-3352 (7215)

VeryLucky888

Kings

Invested

$295

Value

$250

PnL

-$45

Record

58%

41092-29767 (70859)

BullishBarbCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$3.33

Value

$4.17

PnL

+$0.83

Record

42%

3463-4692 (8155)

ameisgoat11<$100

Kings

Invested

$2.95

Value

$2.93

PnL

-$0.03

Record

47%

2131-2421 (4552)

Research grade

AvoidKings at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Kings

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.