Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Pelicans, while the market favors Kings (67%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Pelicans (-7.5)

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Pelicans (63%) · Pelicans at 33¢ · $958 held · ended Oct 30

Pelicans33¢Kings67¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pelicans

Consensus Traders

Pelicans 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$958.24

Combined PnL

$25.39

Smart Money Entry

44.4¢ → 33¢

-26% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 33%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Kings 67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Pelicans33%

Kings67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pelicans5 traders

Total Value$741.43

Total Shares1,589

Combined PnL+$23.89

Kings3 traders

Total Value$165.35

Total Shares291

Combined PnL+$1.5

Pelicans — 63%Kings — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormakeCTR	Pelicansavg 44.3¢	$301.59	$316.24	+$14.64	53% 3931-3424 (7355)
LI Libratus007CTR	Pelicansavg 44¢	$244.2	$249.75	+$5.55	— 2-1 (3)
RN1	Kingsavg 55¢	$137.5	$137.5	+$0	54% 56079-48206 (104285)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Pelicansavg 45¢	$123.75	$123.75	-$0	54% 17016-14265 (31281)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Pelicansavg 45¢	$51.76	$51.46	-$0.3	58% 28272-20850 (49122)
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 45¢	$26.1	$26.39	+$0.29
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 55.8¢	$25.66	$25.07	-$0.59
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 45¢	$33.75	$37.13	+$3.38	50% 3765-3738 (7503)
AN Anon455<$100	Kingsavg 67¢	$19.77	$20.21	+$0.44	56% 2793-2215 (5008)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 44¢	$14.25	$14.57	+$0.32	57% 13390-10234 (23624)
HRTrading<$100	Kingsavg 56¢	$6.58	$7.64	+$1.06	52% 3772-3441 (7213)

takeormakeCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$301.59

Value

$316.24

PnL

+$14.64

Record

53%

3931-3424 (7355)

Libratus007CTR

Pelicans

Invested

$244.2

Value

$249.75

PnL

+$5.55

Record

—

2-1 (3)

RN1

Kings

Invested

$137.5

Value

$137.5

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

56079-48206 (104285)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$123.75

Value

$123.75

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

17016-14265 (31281)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$51.76

Value

$51.46

PnL

-$0.3

Record

58%

28272-20850 (49122)

Both legs:

Pelicans$26.145¢+$0.29

Kings$25.6655.8¢-$0.59

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$33.75

Value

$37.13

PnL

+$3.38

Record

50%

3765-3738 (7503)

Anon455<$100

Kings

Invested

$19.77

Value

$20.21

PnL

+$0.44

Record

56%

2793-2215 (5008)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$14.25

Value

$14.57

PnL

+$0.32

Record

57%

13390-10234 (23624)

HRTrading<$100

Kings

Invested

$6.58

Value

$7.64

PnL

+$1.06

Record

52%

3772-3441 (7213)

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 33%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Kings 67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pelicans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.1%

33.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$184.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

284.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.