Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Pelicans, while the market favors Kings (53%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Pelicans (-3.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Pelicans (50%) · Pelicans at 47¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 30

Pelicans47¢Kings53¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pelicans

Consensus Traders

Pelicans 50%

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$40.2

Smart Money Entry

59¢ → 47¢

-20% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Kings 53%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Pelicans47%

Kings53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pelicans3 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares8,258

Combined PnL+$43.16

Kings3 traders

Total Value$300.85

Total Shares705

Combined PnL-$2.96

Pelicans — 50%Kings — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Pelicans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePelicans 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrKings 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Pelicans 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Pelicansavg 59¢	$4.8K	$4.9K	+$42.81	54% 17016-14265 (31281)
FO Forecastication2	Kingsavg 41¢	$269.78	$266.49	-$3.29	50% 6908-6896 (13804)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 59¢	$38.21	$38.53	+$0.32	57% 13390-10234 (23624)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Kingsavg 39.5¢	$32.78	$33.1	+$0.32	58% 28272-20850 (49122)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Pelicansavg 59¢	$2.95	$2.97	+$0.02	47% 2205-2491 (4696)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Kingsavg 51¢	$1.21	$1.26	+$0.01	49% 674-698 (1372)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$4,829.09

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$42.81

Record

54%

17016-14265 (31281)

Forecastication2

Kings

Invested

$269.78

Value

$266.49

PnL

-$3.29

Record

50%

6908-6896 (13804)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$38.21

Value

$38.53

PnL

+$0.32

Record

57%

13390-10234 (23624)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Kings

Invested

$32.78

Value

$33.1

PnL

+$0.32

Record

58%

28272-20850 (49122)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$2.95

Value

$2.97

PnL

+$0.02

Record

47%

2205-2491 (4696)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Kings

Invested

$1.21

Value

$1.26

PnL

+$0.01

Record

49%

674-698 (1372)

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Kings 53%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Pelicans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePelicans 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrKings 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Pelicans 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pelicans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.2%

47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$103.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

203.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.