Spread: Kings (-1.5)

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Pelicans (80%) · Pelicans at 85¢ · $811 held · ended Oct 30

Kings15¢Pelicans85¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

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⚠️

Avoid

Pelicans

Consensus Traders

Pelicans 80%

Total Value

$811.23

Combined PnL

$25.55

Smart Money Entry

61.2¢ → 85¢

+39% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 85%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Kings15%

Pelicans85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pelicans4 traders

Total Value$678.91

Total Shares914

Combined PnL+$69.65

Kings1 trader

Total Value$132.31

Total Shares464

Combined PnL-$44.1

Pelicans — 80%Kings — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU justaluckydude	Pelicansavg 60.9¢	$317.62	$373.16	+$55.54	54% 10577-9177 (19754)
TA takeormake	Pelicansavg 63.4¢	$188.61	$197.75	+$9.14	53% 3934-3425 (7359)
AN Anon455CTR	Kingsavg 38¢	$176.41	$132.31	-$44.1	56% 2802-2223 (5025)
WO woshikd99<$100	Pelicansavg 58¢	$86.42	$92.38	+$5.96	54% 98-83 (181)
HRTrading<$100	Pelicansavg 65.9¢	$16.61	$15.62	-$0.99	52% 3834-3490 (7324)

justaluckydude

Pelicans

Invested

$317.62

Value

$373.16

PnL

+$55.54

Record

54%

10577-9177 (19754)

takeormake

Pelicans

Invested

$188.61

Value

$197.75

PnL

+$9.14

Record

53%

3934-3425 (7359)

Anon455CTR

Kings

Invested

$176.41

Value

$132.31

PnL

-$44.1

Record

56%

2802-2223 (5025)

woshikd99<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$86.42

Value

$92.38

PnL

+$5.96

Record

54%

98-83 (181)

HRTrading<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$16.61

Value

$15.62

PnL

-$0.99

Record

52%

3834-3490 (7324)

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 85%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pelicans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.6%

85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.