Kings vs. Pelicans

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Pelicans (73%) · Pelicans at 67¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 30

Kings34¢Pelicans66¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pelicans

Consensus Traders

Pelicans 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

-$332.02

Smart Money Entry

65.8¢ → 66.5¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Kings34%

Pelicans67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pelicans8 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares7,555

Combined PnL-$454.39

Kings3 traders

Total Value$971.05

Total Shares2,591

Combined PnL+$122.36

Pelicans — 73%Kings — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BU BullishBarb	Pelicansavg 65.8¢	$2.5K	$2.2K	-$287.93	43% 3005-4028 (7033)
VeryLucky888	Pelicansavg 66¢	$602.23	$606.79	+$4.56	58% 41030-29693 (70723)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Pelicansavg 66¢	$660	$575	-$85	53% 5516-4867 (10383)
TA takeormake	Pelicansavg 66¢	$497.76	$501.53	+$3.77	54% 3829-3308 (7137)
0X 0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941CTR	Kingsavg 31.5¢	$360.59	$486.34	+$125.74	89% 237-28 (265)
HI hi774cCTR	Kingsavg 34¢	$360.94	$355.64	-$5.31	52% 4659-4374 (9033)
IC ic4cream	Pelicansavg 65¢	$395.94	$350.26	-$45.69	59% 2614-1835 (4449)
NI niceqqqqq3	Pelicansavg 66¢	$330	$287.5	-$42.5	36% 26-46 (72)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Kingsavg 33¢	$127.15	$129.07	+$1.93	54% 16897-14158 (31055)
GH ghorrockARB<$100	Pelicansavg 64.2¢	$83.01	$63.88	+$1.81	57% 13257-10098 (23355)
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 64.2¢	$38	$34.01	-$3.43
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 35¢	$24.63	$29.86	+$5.24
0xheavy888<$100	Pelicansavg 66¢	$13.2	$13.3	+$0.1	56% 6940-5557 (12497)
RL RLWG<$100	Pelicansavg 66¢	$13.2	$11.5	-$1.7	50% 7714-7724 (15438)

BullishBarb

Pelicans

Invested

$2,534.85

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$287.93

Record

43%

3005-4028 (7033)

VeryLucky888

Pelicans

Invested

$602.23

Value

$606.79

PnL

+$4.56

Record

58%

41030-29693 (70723)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Pelicans

Invested

$660

Value

$575

PnL

-$85

Record

53%

5516-4867 (10383)

takeormake

Pelicans

Invested

$497.76

Value

$501.53

PnL

+$3.77

Record

54%

3829-3308 (7137)

0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941CTR

Kings

Invested

$360.59

Value

$486.34

PnL

+$125.74

Record

89%

237-28 (265)

hi774cCTR

Kings

Invested

$360.94

Value

$355.64

PnL

-$5.31

Record

52%

4659-4374 (9033)

ic4cream

Pelicans

Invested

$395.94

Value

$350.26

PnL

-$45.69

Record

59%

2614-1835 (4449)

niceqqqqq3

Pelicans

Invested

$330

Value

$287.5

PnL

-$42.5

Record

36%

26-46 (72)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Kings

Invested

$127.15

Value

$129.07

PnL

+$1.93

Record

54%

16897-14158 (31055)

ghorrockARB<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$83.01

Value

$63.88

PnL

+$1.81

Record

57%

13257-10098 (23355)

Both legs:

Pelicans$3864.2¢-$3.43

Kings$24.6335¢+$5.24

0xheavy888<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$13.2

Value

$13.3

PnL

+$0.1

Record

56%

6940-5557 (12497)

RLWG<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$13.2

Value

$11.5

PnL

-$1.7

Record

50%

7714-7724 (15438)

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pelicans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.