Kings vs. Grizzlies: O/U 236.5

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 88¢ · $454 held · ended Nov 1

Over13¢Under87¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

Total Value

$453.94

Combined PnL

-$9.01

Smart Money Entry

59¢ → 87.5¢

+48% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 88%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over13%

Under88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$450.66

Total Shares781

Combined PnL-$9.83

Over1 trader

Total Value$3.28

Total Shares7

Combined PnL+$0.82

Under — 80%Over — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTicker	Underavg 57.5¢	$233.4	$227.36	-$6.04	62% 4162-2553 (6715)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 57¢	$165.3	$162.4	-$2.9	54% 17200-14430 (31630)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 78¢	$34.32	$33.22	-$1.1	53% 5014-4502 (9516)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 67¢	$27.47	$27.68	+$0.21	58% 28900-21323 (50223)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Overavg 33¢	$2.46	$3.28	+$0.82	49% 1171-1202 (2373)

SunlineTicker

Under

Invested

$233.4

Value

$227.36

PnL

-$6.04

Record

62%

4162-2553 (6715)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$165.3

Value

$162.4

PnL

-$2.9

Record

54%

17200-14430 (31630)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$34.32

Value

$33.22

PnL

-$1.1

Record

53%

5014-4502 (9516)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$27.47

Value

$27.68

PnL

+$0.21

Record

58%

28900-21323 (50223)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.46

Value

$3.28

PnL

+$0.82

Record

49%

1171-1202 (2373)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 88%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.