Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (55%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Kings vs. Grizzlies: O/U 233.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 46¢ · $499 held · ends Nov 1

Over46¢Under54¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$499.46

Combined PnL

-$5.31

Smart Money Entry

46¢ → 45.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 55%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$449.55

Total Shares1,010

Combined PnL-$5.1

Under2 traders

Total Value$49.91

Total Shares76

Combined PnL-$0.21

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 46¢	$460	$445	-$5	53% 5631-4970 (10601)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 55¢	$40.61	$40.31	-$0.3	58% 28689-21179 (49868)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 55¢	$9.52	$9.6	+$0.09	57% 13804-10576 (24380)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 46.5¢	$4.65	$4.55	-$0.1	48% 2389-2622 (5011)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$460

Value

$445

PnL

-$5

Record

53%

5631-4970 (10601)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$40.61

Value

$40.31

PnL

-$0.3

Record

58%

28689-21179 (49868)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$9.52

Value

$9.6

PnL

+$0.09

Record

57%

13804-10576 (24380)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.65

Value

$4.55

PnL

-$0.1

Record

48%

2389-2622 (5011)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 55%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.