Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (53%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Kings vs. Grizzlies: O/U 232.5

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (64%) · Over at 48¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 1

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 64%

Total Value

$12.0K

Combined PnL

$28.22

Smart Money Entry

48.5¢ → 47.5¢

-2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares9,892

Combined PnL+$40.66

Over7 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares13,929

Combined PnL-$12.44

Under — 36%Over — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Underavg 52¢	$4.9K	$4.9K	+$46.75	54% 604-519 (1123)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 47.5¢	$4.5K	$4.5K	-$2.95	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
AY ay118CTR	Overavg 51¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$55.39	51% 25-24 (49)
GO goldmynameCTR	Overavg 49¢	$1.8K	$540.35	-$86.01	60% 138-93 (231)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 51¢	$510	$535	+$25	53% 5631-4970 (10601)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 48¢	$197.4	$191.23	-$6.17	59% 45810-32163 (77973)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$61.77	$57.83	-$3.94	58% 28689-21179 (49868)
RollAwayTheDew<$100	Underavg 47¢	$47	$46.5	-$0.5	53% 403-355 (758)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 49.4¢	$27.09	$27.67	+$0.58	57% 13804-10576 (24380)
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$20.64	$20.86	+$0.22	54% 3357-2905 (6262)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$4.9	$4.75	-$0.15	48% 2389-2622 (5011)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Under

Invested

$4,862.09

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$46.75

Record

54%

604-519 (1123)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$4,471.16

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$2.95

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

ay118CTR

Over

Invested

$1,130

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$55.39

Record

51%

25-24 (49)

goldmynameCTR

Over

Invested

$1,834.07

Value

$540.35

PnL

-$86.01

Record

60%

138-93 (231)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$510

Value

$535

PnL

+$25

Record

53%

5631-4970 (10601)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$197.4

Value

$191.23

PnL

-$6.17

Record

59%

45810-32163 (77973)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$61.77

Value

$57.83

PnL

-$3.94

Record

58%

28689-21179 (49868)

RollAwayTheDew<$100

Under

Invested

$47

Value

$46.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

53%

403-355 (758)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$27.09

Value

$27.67

PnL

+$0.58

Record

57%

13804-10576 (24380)

HerdoniaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20.64

Value

$20.86

PnL

+$0.22

Record

54%

3357-2905 (6262)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.9

Value

$4.75

PnL

-$0.15

Record

48%

2389-2622 (5011)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.