Kings vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 51¢ · $411 held · ends Nov 1

Over50¢Under50¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$411.22

Combined PnL

$5.87

Smart Money Entry

49.5¢ → 50.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$374.6

Total Shares743

Combined PnL+$6.92

Over3 traders

Total Value$36.63

Total Shares74

Combined PnL-$1.06

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ComingBack	Underavg 50¢	$280.5	$283.31	+$2.81	61% 3943-2470 (6413)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 48¢	$79.02	$83.13	+$4.12	58% 41929-30449 (72378)
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$22.8	$22.13	-$0.67	54% 3357-2905 (6262)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$9.68	$9.4	-$0.28	57% 13809-10582 (24391)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 48¢	$8.16	$8.16	+$0	58% 28707-21186 (49893)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 53.5¢	$5.35	$5.1	-$0.1	48% 2396-2627 (5023)

ComingBack

Under

Invested

$280.5

Value

$283.31

PnL

+$2.81

Record

61%

3943-2470 (6413)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$79.02

Value

$83.13

PnL

+$4.12

Record

58%

41929-30449 (72378)

HerdoniaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22.8

Value

$22.13

PnL

-$0.67

Record

54%

3357-2905 (6262)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.68

Value

$9.4

PnL

-$0.28

Record

57%

13809-10582 (24391)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$8.16

Value

$8.16

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

28707-21186 (49893)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.35

Value

$5.1

PnL

-$0.1

Record

48%

2396-2627 (5023)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.