Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (67%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Kings vs. Grizzlies: O/U 226.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 33¢ · $34K held · ended Nov 1

Over33¢Under67¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$33.7K

Combined PnL

-$80.77

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 33¢

-38% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 33%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over33%

Under67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$14.8K

Total Shares27,435

Combined PnL-$78.1

Under5 traders

Total Value$100.93

Total Shares161

Combined PnL-$2.67

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 46.2¢	$18.8K	$18.5K	-$352.66	54% 17200-14430 (31630)
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.2¢	$11.7K	$11.5K	-$171.9
└ Over leg	Overavg 55.9¢	$7.1K	$7.0K	-$180.76
RegardedMoneyCTR	Overavg 54¢	$7.6K	$7.5K	-$70	59% 889-628 (1517)
LU luckycat888888CTR	Overavg 52.9¢	$4.8K	$4.7K	-$37.73	50% 60-60 (120)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 49¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$23.53	48% 959-1040 (1999)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Overavg 55¢	$354.75	$357.98	+$3.23	62% 4162-2553 (6715)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 56¢	$237.13	$226.89	-$10.24	54% 56824-49050 (105874)
└ Over leg	Overavg 56¢	$140	$128.75	-$11.25
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$97.13	$98.14	+$1.01
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Underavg 47.5¢	$88.32	$87.98	-$0.34	58% 28900-21323 (50223)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.5¢	$51.77	$52.32	+$0.55
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.3¢	$36.55	$35.66	-$0.89
TO torta.tech<$100	Underavg 65¢	$63.7	$62.23	-$1.47	63% 8171-4892 (13063)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 67¢	$21.44	$21.92	+$0.48	53% 5014-4502 (9516)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Underavg 65¢	$12.35	$11.69	-$0.66	59% 30541-21260 (51801)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Overavg 55¢	$8.31	$11.18	+$2.87	49% 1171-1202 (2373)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100	Underavg 66¢	$3.3	$3.18	-$0.13	53% 6134-5384 (11518)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 38¢	$2.8	$1.92	-$0.89	57% 13944-10725 (24669)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$18,831.05

Value

$18.5K

PnL

-$352.66

Record

54%

17200-14430 (31630)

Both legs:

Under$11,692.5746.2¢-$171.9

Over$7,138.4855.9¢-$180.76

RegardedMoneyCTR

Over

Invested

$7,560

Value

$7.5K

PnL

-$70

Record

59%

889-628 (1517)

luckycat888888CTR

Over

Invested

$4,762.73

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$37.73

Record

50%

60-60 (120)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$2,169.09

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$23.53

Record

48%

959-1040 (1999)

SunlineTickerCTR

Over

Invested

$354.75

Value

$357.98

PnL

+$3.23

Record

62%

4162-2553 (6715)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$237.13

Value

$226.89

PnL

-$10.24

Record

54%

56824-49050 (105874)

Both legs:

Invested

$88.32

Value

$87.98

PnL

-$0.34

Record

58%

28900-21323 (50223)

Both legs:

Under$51.7747.5¢+$0.55

Over$36.5553.3¢-$0.89

torta.tech<$100

Under

Invested

$63.7

Value

$62.23

PnL

-$1.47

Record

63%

8171-4892 (13063)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$21.44

Value

$21.92

PnL

+$0.48

Record

53%

5014-4502 (9516)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Under

Invested

$12.35

Value

$11.69

PnL

-$0.66

Record

59%

30541-21260 (51801)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.31

Value

$11.18

PnL

+$2.87

Record

49%

1171-1202 (2373)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100

Under

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.18

PnL

-$0.13

Record

53%

6134-5384 (11518)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$2.8

Value

$1.92

PnL

-$0.89

Record

57%

13944-10725 (24669)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 33%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.1%

33.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$184.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

284.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.