Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (62%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Kings vs. Grizzlies: O/U 224.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 38¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1

Over38¢Under62¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$295.09

Smart Money Entry

52.8¢ → 38¢

-28% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 38%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 62%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over38%

Under62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,060

Combined PnL+$257.98

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,294

Combined PnL+$37.11

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO torta.tech	Underavg 47.7¢	$926.17	$1.2K	+$248.74	63% 8171-4892 (13063)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 57¢	$594.42	$589.2	-$5.21	54% 17200-14430 (31630)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Overavg 49¢	$497.91	$528.39	+$30.48	46% 336-387 (723)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100	Underavg 48¢	$47.08	$59.37	+$12.3	53% 6134-5384 (11518)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Overavg 58¢	$40.02	$52.1	+$12.07	49% 1171-1202 (2373)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$45.58	$45.05	-$0.53	48% 959-1040 (1999)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 56¢	$32.06	$32.35	+$0.29	54% 56824-49050 (105874)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 41¢	$5.92	$3.54	-$2.38	53% 5014-4502 (9516)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 36¢	$2.12	$1.44	-$0.68	57% 13944-10725 (24669)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 56¢	$1.27	$1.28	+$0.01	58% 28900-21323 (50223)

torta.tech

Under

Invested

$926.17

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$248.74

Record

63%

8171-4892 (13063)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$594.42

Value

$589.2

PnL

-$5.21

Record

54%

17200-14430 (31630)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

Over

Invested

$497.91

Value

$528.39

PnL

+$30.48

Record

46%

336-387 (723)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100

Under

Invested

$47.08

Value

$59.37

PnL

+$12.3

Record

53%

6134-5384 (11518)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$40.02

Value

$52.1

PnL

+$12.07

Record

49%

1171-1202 (2373)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$45.58

Value

$45.05

PnL

-$0.53

Record

48%

959-1040 (1999)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$32.06

Value

$32.35

PnL

+$0.29

Record

54%

56824-49050 (105874)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$5.92

Value

$3.54

PnL

-$2.38

Record

53%

5014-4502 (9516)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$2.12

Value

$1.44

PnL

-$0.68

Record

57%

13944-10725 (24669)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.27

Value

$1.28

PnL

+$0.01

Record

58%

28900-21323 (50223)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 38%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 62%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.2%

38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$148.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

248.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.