Spread: Grizzlies (-9.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (60%) · Kings at 54¢ · $24K held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Kings
5
Kings 60%
1 arb excluded
$23.8K
$16.73
52.4¢ → 53.5¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidKings at 54%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GM gmpm2 | Kingsavg 52.5¢ | $16.8K | $16.8K | +$15.92 | 53% 337-299 (636) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR | Grizzliesavg 48¢ | $4.8K | $4.8K | -$50 | 47% 2510-2803 (5313) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Kingsavg 52.2¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$52.14 | 54% 17179-14402 (31581) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Grizzliesavg 49¢ | $94.49 | $92.79 | -$1.7 | 58% 28695-21181 (49876) |
| └ Grizzlies leg | Grizzliesavg 49¢ | $68.14 | $66.02 | -$2.12 | |
| └ Kings leg | Kingsavg 51.7¢ | $26.35 | $26.76 | +$0.41 | |
FF ff3364CTR<$100 | Grizzliesavg 49¢ | $42.42 | $40.69 | -$1.73 | 50% 800-803 (1603) |
HE Herdonia<$100 | Kingsavg 51¢ | $9.99 | $10.38 | +$0.39 | 54% 3357-2905 (6262) |
Invested
$16,799.88
Value
$16.8K
PnL
+$15.92
Record
53%
337-299 (636)
Invested
$4,800
Value
$4.8K
PnL
-$50
Record
47%
2510-2803 (5313)
Invested
$2,051.32
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$52.14
Record
54%
17179-14402 (31581)
Invested
$94.49
Value
$92.79
PnL
-$1.7
Record
58%
28695-21181 (49876)
Both legs:
Invested
$42.42
Value
$40.69
PnL
-$1.73
Record
50%
800-803 (1603)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$10.38
PnL
+$0.39
Record
54%
3357-2905 (6262)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.