Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Kings, while the market favors Grizzlies (55%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Grizzlies (-8.5)
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (50%) · Kings at 46¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Kings
4
Kings 50%
1 arb excluded
$3.5K
-$12.73
42¢ → 45.5¢
+8% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidKings at 46%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Grizzlies 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Grizzliesavg 56.8¢ | $2.5K | $2.4K | -$37.91 | 54% 17179-14402 (31581) |
| └ Grizzlies leg | Grizzliesavg 56.8¢ | $2.0K | $1.9K | -$79.84 | |
| └ Kings leg | Kingsavg 42¢ | $503.21 | $545.14 | +$41.93 | |
TA takeormakeCTR | Kingsavg 42¢ | $999.6 | $987.7 | -$11.9 | 53% 4134-3596 (7730) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Grizzliesavg 58¢ | $38.16 | $36.54 | -$1.62 | 58% 28689-21179 (49868) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Kingsavg 42¢ | $9.45 | $10.24 | +$0.79 | 53% 4616-4152 (8768) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Grizzliesavg 58¢ | $5.8 | $5.8 | +$0 | 48% 2389-2622 (5011) |
Invested
$2,470.34
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$37.91
Record
54%
17179-14402 (31581)
Both legs:
Invested
$999.6
Value
$987.7
PnL
-$11.9
Record
53%
4134-3596 (7730)
Invested
$38.16
Value
$36.54
PnL
-$1.62
Record
58%
28689-21179 (49868)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$9.45
Value
$10.24
PnL
+$0.79
Record
53%
4616-4152 (8768)
Invested
$5.8
Value
$5.8
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
2389-2622 (5011)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.