Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Kings, while the market favors Grizzlies (68%). 13 of 20 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Grizzlies (-7.5)

13 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (65%) · Kings at 33¢ · $132K held · ended Nov 1

Grizzlies68¢Kings32¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Kings

Consensus Traders

Kings 65%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$131.9K

Combined PnL

$23.93

Smart Money Entry

49.2¢ → 32.5¢

-34% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidKings at 33%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

13 of 20 top traders (65%)Underdog side (market favors Grizzlies 68%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Grizzlies68%

Kings33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Grizzlies7 traders

Total Value$42.5K

Total Shares82,915

Combined PnL+$168.95

Kings13 traders

Total Value$48.1K

Total Shares97,942

Combined PnL-$145.02

Grizzlies — 35%Kings — 65%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBank	Grizzliesavg 51¢	$41.1K	$41.1K	-$0	43% 554-734 (1288)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Kingsavg 48.4¢	$28.6K	$28.7K	+$120.45	54% 17200-14430 (31630)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 48.4¢	$18.5K	$18.9K	+$410.69
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 52¢	$10.1K	$9.8K	-$290.23
IC ic4creamCTR	Kingsavg 49.3¢	$21.0K	$21.1K	+$64.56	59% 2643-1854 (4497)
GM gmpm2CTR	Kingsavg 49¢	$20.2K	$20.0K	-$206.5	53% 339-300 (639)
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Kingsavg 48.5¢	$5.5K	$5.5K	+$4.05	54% 3362-2907 (6269)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 48.5¢	$4.3K	$4.4K	+$44.52
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 52.8¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$40.47
zb8CTR	Kingsavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	-$50	53% 635-553 (1188)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Grizzliesavg 52¢	$6.3K	$4.0K	+$8.11	58% 42202-30652 (72854)
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 52¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$11.89
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 48¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$20
HI hi774cARB<$100	Grizzliesavg 53¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$21.16	52% 4749-4468 (9217)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 48¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$34.26
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 53¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$55.42
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Kingsavg 48¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$31.29	62% 4162-2553 (6715)
AN Anon455	Grizzliesavg 53¢	$530	$610	+$80	55% 2972-2408 (5380)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Grizzliesavg 53¢	$530	$610	+$80	53% 5653-4991 (10644)
RN1ARB<$100	Grizzliesavg 54¢	$617.8	$601.5	-$16.3	54% 56824-49050 (105874)
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 54¢	$405	$378.75	-$26.25
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 47.3¢	$212.8	$222.75	+$9.95
FO Forecastication2CTR	Kingsavg 49¢	$459.13	$454.45	-$4.69	50% 7049-7061 (14110)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Kingsavg 51.7¢	$199.62	$218.19	+$18.57	46% 336-387 (723)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Kingsavg 49.5¢	$158.32	$160.02	+$1.69	48% 959-1040 (1999)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Kingsavg 48.3¢	$152.83	$151.65	-$1.18	58% 28900-21323 (50223)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 48.3¢	$90.32	$92.57	+$2.24
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 53.4¢	$62.51	$59.09	-$3.42
NA NatoAlfista	Grizzliesavg 55¢	$104.5	$115.9	+$11.4	50% 3891-3854 (7745)
PU purplegattoCTR	Kingsavg 49¢	$102.41	$103.46	+$1.05	50% 5891-5982 (11873)
heyboy800<$100	Grizzliesavg 67.4¢	$100	$96.51	-$3.49	61% 956-599 (1555)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Kingsavg 49¢	$39.2	$39.2	-$0	50% 7925-7961 (15886)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Kingsavg 50¢	$10	$9.9	-$0.1	51% 1486-1430 (2916)
HRTrading<$100	Grizzliesavg 53¢	$4.25	$5.37	+$1.12	53% 5014-4502 (9516)
SL slimjoeCTR<$100	Kingsavg 43¢	$4.33	$3.93	-$0.4	51% 6510-6169 (12679)
MI mishipolisCTR<$100	Kingsavg 33¢	$3.3	$3.5	+$0.2	50% 4552-4496 (9048)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100	Grizzliesavg 63¢	$2.32	$2.25	-$0.07	55% 1754-1450 (3204)

BreakTheBank

Grizzlies

Invested

$41,088.3

Value

$41.1K

PnL

-$0

Record

43%

554-734 (1288)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$28,611.57

Value

$28.7K

PnL

+$120.45

Record

54%

17200-14430 (31630)

Both legs:

Kings$18,485.8348.4¢+$410.69

Grizzlies$10,125.7552¢-$290.23

ic4creamCTR

Kings

Invested

$21,042.73

Value

$21.1K

PnL

+$64.56

Record

59%

2643-1854 (4497)

gmpm2CTR

Kings

Invested

$20,237

Value

$20.0K

PnL

-$206.5

Record

53%

339-300 (639)

HerdoniaARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$5,525.15

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$4.05

Record

54%

3362-2907 (6269)

Both legs:

Kings$4,318.5548.5¢+$44.52

Grizzlies$1,206.652.8¢-$40.47

zb8CTR

Kings

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$50

Record

53%

635-553 (1188)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$6,349.61

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$8.11

Record

58%

42202-30652 (72854)

Both legs:

Grizzlies$2,079.7352¢-$11.89

Kings$1,92048¢+$20

hi774cARB<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$2,271.08

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$21.16

Record

52%

4749-4468 (9217)

Both legs:

Kings$1,096.248¢+$34.26

Grizzlies$1,174.8953¢-$55.42

SunlineTickerCTR

Kings

Invested

$1,001.28

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$31.29

Record

62%

4162-2553 (6715)

Anon455

Grizzlies

Invested

$530

Value

$610

PnL

+$80

Record

55%

2972-2408 (5380)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Grizzlies

Invested

$530

Value

$610

PnL

+$80

Record

53%

5653-4991 (10644)

RN1ARB<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$617.8

Value

$601.5

PnL

-$16.3

Record

54%

56824-49050 (105874)

Both legs:

Grizzlies$40554¢-$26.25

Kings$212.847.3¢+$9.95

Forecastication2CTR

Kings

Invested

$459.13

Value

$454.45

PnL

-$4.69

Record

50%

7049-7061 (14110)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

Kings

Invested

$199.62

Value

$218.19

PnL

+$18.57

Record

46%

336-387 (723)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Kings

Invested

$158.32

Value

$160.02

PnL

+$1.69

Record

48%

959-1040 (1999)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$152.83

Value

$151.65

PnL

-$1.18

Record

58%

28900-21323 (50223)

Both legs:

Kings$90.3248.3¢+$2.24

Grizzlies$62.5153.4¢-$3.42

NatoAlfista

Grizzlies

Invested

$104.5

Value

$115.9

PnL

+$11.4

Record

50%

3891-3854 (7745)

purplegattoCTR

Kings

Invested

$102.41

Value

$103.46

PnL

+$1.05

Record

50%

5891-5982 (11873)

heyboy800<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$100

Value

$96.51

PnL

-$3.49

Record

61%

956-599 (1555)

RLWGCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$39.2

Value

$39.2

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

7925-7961 (15886)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$10

Value

$9.9

PnL

-$0.1

Record

51%

1486-1430 (2916)

HRTrading<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$4.25

Value

$5.37

PnL

+$1.12

Record

53%

5014-4502 (9516)

slimjoeCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$4.33

Value

$3.93

PnL

-$0.4

Record

51%

6510-6169 (12679)

mishipolisCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$0.2

Record

50%

4552-4496 (9048)

VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$2.32

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$0.07

Record

55%

1754-1450 (3204)

Research grade

AvoidKings at 33%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

13 of 20 top traders (65%)Underdog side (market favors Grizzlies 68%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.6%

32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$188.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

288.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.