Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Kings, while the market favors Grizzlies (71%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Grizzlies (-6.5)

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (88%) · Kings at 30¢ · $15K held · ended Nov 1

Grizzlies71¢Kings29¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Kings

Consensus Traders

Kings 88%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.5K

Combined PnL

$15.45

Smart Money Entry

44.9¢ → 29.5¢

-34% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidKings at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Grizzlies 71%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Grizzlies71%

Kings30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kings7 traders

Total Value$588.04

Total Shares1,276

Combined PnL+$15.45

Grizzlies1 trader

Total Value$25.96

Total Shares44

Combined PnL-$0

Kings — 88%Grizzlies — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKings 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Kings 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Grizzliesavg 57¢	$13.8K	$13.6K	-$255.87	54% 17200-14430 (31630)
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 57¢	$7.7K	$8.0K	+$267.88
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 44.9¢	$6.1K	$5.5K	-$523.75
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989ARB<$100	Grizzliesavg 56¢	$734.25	$756.84	+$26.4	53% 5653-4991 (10644)
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 56¢	$421.7	$444.29	+$22.59
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 41¢	$312.55	$312.55	+$3.81
RN1ARB<$100	Grizzliesavg 56.6¢	$496.16	$508.66	+$12.5	54% 56824-49050 (105874)
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 56.6¢	$291.16	$303.66	+$12.5
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 41¢	$205	$205	+$0
GA gagarin59CTR	Kingsavg 46¢	$255.21	$277.4	+$22.19	51% 701-671 (1372)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Kingsavg 45¢	$192.52	$194.66	+$2.14	50% 7049-7061 (14110)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Kingsavg 41¢	$52.89	$52.89	+$0	53% 407-358 (765)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Grizzliesavg 57¢	$47.58	$48.82	+$1.24	58% 28900-21323 (50223)
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 57¢	$27.36	$28.32	+$0.96
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 40.4¢	$20.22	$20.5	+$0.28
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Kingsavg 44¢	$49.3	$45.93	-$3.36	48% 959-1040 (1999)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Grizzliesavg 59¢	$25.96	$25.96	-$0	50% 3891-3854 (7745)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Kingsavg 43.3¢	$16.02	$11.1	-$4.92	53% 5014-4502 (9516)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Kingsavg 46¢	$4.6	$4.55	-$0.05	51% 1486-1430 (2916)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Kingsavg 41¢	$2.05	$1.5	-$0.55	52% 7347-6663 (14010)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$13,807.06

Value

$13.6K

PnL

-$255.87

Record

54%

17200-14430 (31630)

Both legs:

Grizzlies$7,747.857¢+$267.88

Kings$6,059.2744.9¢-$523.75

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989ARB<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$734.25

Value

$756.84

PnL

+$26.4

Record

53%

5653-4991 (10644)

Both legs:

Grizzlies$421.756¢+$22.59

Kings$312.5541¢+$3.81

RN1ARB<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$496.16

Value

$508.66

PnL

+$12.5

Record

54%

56824-49050 (105874)

Both legs:

Grizzlies$291.1656.6¢+$12.5

Kings$20541¢+$0

gagarin59CTR

Kings

Invested

$255.21

Value

$277.4

PnL

+$22.19

Record

51%

701-671 (1372)

Forecastication2CTR

Kings

Invested

$192.52

Value

$194.66

PnL

+$2.14

Record

50%

7049-7061 (14110)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$52.89

Value

$52.89

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

407-358 (765)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$47.58

Value

$48.82

PnL

+$1.24

Record

58%

28900-21323 (50223)

Both legs:

Grizzlies$27.3657¢+$0.96

Kings$20.2240.4¢+$0.28

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$49.3

Value

$45.93

PnL

-$3.36

Record

48%

959-1040 (1999)

NatoAlfista<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$25.96

Value

$25.96

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

3891-3854 (7745)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$16.02

Value

$11.1

PnL

-$4.92

Record

53%

5014-4502 (9516)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.55

PnL

-$0.05

Record

51%

1486-1430 (2916)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$2.05

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$0.55

Record

52%

7347-6663 (14010)

Research grade

AvoidKings at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Grizzlies 71%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKings 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Kings 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.6%

29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$216.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

316.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.