Spread: Grizzlies (-11.5)

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (29%) · Kings at 57¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1

Grizzlies43¢Kings57¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Kings

Consensus Traders

Kings 29%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$83.73

Smart Money Entry

54.6¢ → 57.5¢

+5% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidKings at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Grizzlies43%

Kings57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kings2 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,259

Combined PnL+$85.69

Grizzlies5 traders

Total Value$74.43

Total Shares168

Combined PnL-$1.95

Kings — 29%Grizzlies — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Kingsavg 54.7¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$84.75	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
HE Herdonia<$100	Kingsavg 52¢	$97.28	$99.15	+$0.94	54% 3357-2905 (6262)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 46¢	$46.45	$44.95	-$1.51	58% 28689-21179 (49868)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 44¢	$17.61	$17	-$0.61	53% 4616-4152 (8768)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 46¢	$6.76	$6.91	+$0.15	53% 5631-4970 (10601)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 48¢	$3.36	$3.22	-$0.04	55% 1742-1435 (3177)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.35	+$0.05	48% 2389-2622 (5011)

HomeRunHazard

Kings

Invested

$1,681.39

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$84.75

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

Herdonia<$100

Kings

Invested

$97.28

Value

$99.15

PnL

+$0.94

Record

54%

3357-2905 (6262)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$46.45

Value

$44.95

PnL

-$1.51

Record

58%

28689-21179 (49868)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$17.61

Value

$17

PnL

-$0.61

Record

53%

4616-4152 (8768)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$6.76

Value

$6.91

PnL

+$0.15

Record

53%

5631-4970 (10601)

VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$3.36

Value

$3.22

PnL

-$0.04

Record

55%

1742-1435 (3177)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.35

PnL

+$0.05

Record

48%

2389-2622 (5011)

Research grade

AvoidKings at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Kings

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.