Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Grizzlies, while the market favors Kings (54%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Grizzlies (-10.5)

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Grizzlies (83%) · Grizzlies at 47¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 1

Grizzlies47¢Kings53¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Grizzlies

Consensus Traders

Grizzlies 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.6K

Combined PnL

-$161.76

Smart Money Entry

50.3¢ → 46.5¢

-8% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Kings 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Grizzlies47%

Kings54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Grizzlies5 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares8,604

Combined PnL-$180.33

Kings1 trader

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,714

Combined PnL+$18.57

Grizzlies — 83%Kings — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Kingsavg 51.1¢	$5.5K	$5.5K	-$17.53	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 51.1¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$157.49
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 50.7¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$175.02
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Grizzliesavg 50¢	$3.4K	$3.2K	-$170.21	47% 2505-2803 (5308)
HI hi774c	Kingsavg 51¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$18.57	52% 4731-4450 (9181)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Grizzliesavg 51.6¢	$558.17	$551.46	-$6.71	54% 3357-2905 (6262)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Grizzliesavg 51¢	$312.77	$312.77	+$0	53% 5631-4970 (10601)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 51.8¢	$70.75	$67.35	-$3.4	58% 28689-21179 (49868)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.55	+$0	48% 2389-2622 (5011)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$5,507.27

Value

$5.5K

PnL

-$17.53

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

Both legs:

Kings$3,374.2751.1¢+$157.49

Grizzlies$2,13350.7¢-$175.02

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$3,404.27

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$170.21

Record

47%

2505-2803 (5308)

hi774c

Kings

Invested

$1,894

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$18.57

Record

52%

4731-4450 (9181)

HerdoniaCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$558.17

Value

$551.46

PnL

-$6.71

Record

54%

3357-2905 (6262)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$312.77

Value

$312.77

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

5631-4970 (10601)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$70.75

Value

$67.35

PnL

-$3.4

Record

58%

28689-21179 (49868)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.55

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

2389-2622 (5011)

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Kings 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Grizzlies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.