Kings vs. Mavericks: O/U 230.5

11 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (79%) · Over at 55¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 3

Over55¢Under45¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 79%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.3K

Combined PnL

$80.29

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 54.5¢

+3% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 14 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over55%

Under46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares5,079

Combined PnL-$16.17

Over11 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares4,993

Combined PnL+$96.47

Under — 21%Over — 79%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 54¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	-$43.28	54% 17537-14740 (32277)
└ Over leg	Overavg 54¢	$3.4K	$3.3K	-$29.09
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.2¢	$970.5	$956.3	-$14.19
nigiri99CTR	Underavg 46.9¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$21.11	46% 8100-9429 (17529)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Overavg 53¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$100	47% 2629-2932 (5561)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Overavg 53¢	$212	$212	+$0	51% 1601-1545 (3146)
SE sentrio	Overavg 54¢	$139.3	$132.76	-$6.54	50% 25032-24757 (49789)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Underavg 45¢	$115.2	$120.32	+$5.12	50% 7264-7360 (14624)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Overavg 52¢	$52	$53	+$1.5	51% 4302-4131 (8433)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186<$100	Overavg 52¢	$51.2	$51.69	+$0.49	46% 472-546 (1018)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Overavg 52¢	$26.78	$27.04	+$0.26	50% 4045-4012 (8057)
GA GamblingAddict12345<$100	Overavg 53¢	$19.99	$19.99	+$0.94	51% 3969-3868 (7837)
0xheavy888<$100	Overavg 53¢	$10.6	$10.6	+$0.1	56% 7482-5994 (13476)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 55¢	$9.83	$9.47	-$0.36	58% 29933-21984 (51917)
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$6.16	$5.98	-$0.18	54% 3481-3016 (6497)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 53.5¢	$9.95	$5	+$0.05	52% 8285-7512 (15797)
QU QuentinChen<$100	Overavg 54¢	$2.7	$2.73	+$0.02	47% 329-372 (701)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$4,347.14

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$43.28

Record

54%

17537-14740 (32277)

Both legs:

Over$3,376.6554¢-$29.09

Under$970.547.2¢-$14.19

nigiri99CTR

Under

Invested

$2,258.23

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$21.11

Record

46%

8100-9429 (17529)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Over

Invested

$2,120

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$100

Record

47%

2629-2932 (5561)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Over

Invested

$212

Value

$212

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

1601-1545 (3146)

sentrio

Over

Invested

$139.3

Value

$132.76

PnL

-$6.54

Record

50%

25032-24757 (49789)

Forecastication2CTR

Under

Invested

$115.2

Value

$120.32

PnL

+$5.12

Record

50%

7264-7360 (14624)

6512395314597884<$100

Over

Invested

$52

Value

$53

PnL

+$1.5

Record

51%

4302-4131 (8433)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186<$100

Over

Invested

$51.2

Value

$51.69

PnL

+$0.49

Record

46%

472-546 (1018)

NatoAlfista<$100

Over

Invested

$26.78

Value

$27.04

PnL

+$0.26

Record

50%

4045-4012 (8057)

GamblingAddict12345<$100

Over

Invested

$19.99

Value

$19.99

PnL

+$0.94

Record

51%

3969-3868 (7837)

0xheavy888<$100

Over

Invested

$10.6

Value

$10.6

PnL

+$0.1

Record

56%

7482-5994 (13476)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$9.83

Value

$9.47

PnL

-$0.36

Record

58%

29933-21984 (51917)

HerdoniaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.16

Value

$5.98

PnL

-$0.18

Record

54%

3481-3016 (6497)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$9.95

Value

PnL

+$0.05

Record

52%

8285-7512 (15797)

QuentinChen<$100

Over

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.73

PnL

+$0.02

Record

47%

329-372 (701)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 14 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.