Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Mavericks, while the market favors Kings (55%). 2 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Mavericks (-9.5)

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (22%) · Mavericks at 46¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 3

Mavericks46¢Kings54¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mavericks

Consensus Traders

Mavericks 22%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$145.08

Smart Money Entry

55¢ → 45.5¢

-17% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors Kings 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Mavericks46%

Kings55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mavericks2 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares8,024

Combined PnL+$39.29

Kings7 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,577

Combined PnL+$105.8

Mavericks — 22%Kings — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKings 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpMavericks 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrKings 86% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Kings 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Libratus007CTR	Mavericksavg 55¢	$3.9K	$3.9K	+$40.01	— 13-1 (14)
drainedandpoor	Kingsavg 53¢	$616.57	$634.02	+$17.45	48% 626-667 (1293)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Kingsavg 47.6¢	$418.11	$478.23	+$60.12	46% 472-546 (1018)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Kingsavg 50.4¢	$449.21	$325.06	-$18.35	47% 13123-14702 (27825)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 50.4¢	$177.77	$192.2	+$14.43
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 52¢	$151.84	$132.86	-$32.78
nigiri99	Kingsavg 48¢	$100.85	$114.45	+$13.6	46% 7292-8602 (15894)
HE Herdonia<$100	Kingsavg 45¢	$68.56	$80.75	+$12.19	54% 3481-3016 (6497)
SE sentrio<$100	Kingsavg 45¢	$32.78	$38.61	-$0.36	50% 25023-24743 (49766)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Kingsavg 54¢	$27.23	$27.49	+$0.25	51% 1598-1541 (3139)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Kingsavg 48¢	$24.48	$27.03	+$2.55	50% 7249-7352 (14601)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 52¢	$12.48	$11.76	-$0.72	58% 29926-21975 (51901)

Libratus007CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$3,879.99

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$40.01

Record

—

13-1 (14)

drainedandpoor

Kings

Invested

$616.57

Value

$634.02

PnL

+$17.45

Record

48%

626-667 (1293)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Kings

Invested

$418.11

Value

$478.23

PnL

+$60.12

Record

46%

472-546 (1018)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$449.21

Value

$325.06

PnL

-$18.35

Record

47%

13123-14702 (27825)

Both legs:

Kings$177.7750.4¢+$14.43

Mavericks$151.8452¢-$32.78

nigiri99

Kings

Invested

$100.85

Value

$114.45

PnL

+$13.6

Record

46%

7292-8602 (15894)

Herdonia<$100

Kings

Invested

$68.56

Value

$80.75

PnL

+$12.19

Record

54%

3481-3016 (6497)

sentrio<$100

Kings

Invested

$32.78

Value

$38.61

PnL

-$0.36

Record

50%

25023-24743 (49766)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Kings

Invested

$27.23

Value

$27.49

PnL

+$0.25

Record

51%

1598-1541 (3139)

Forecastication2<$100

Kings

Invested

$24.48

Value

$27.03

PnL

+$2.55

Record

50%

7249-7352 (14601)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$12.48

Value

$11.76

PnL

-$0.72

Record

58%

29926-21975 (51901)

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors Kings 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKings 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpMavericks 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrKings 86% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Kings 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mavericks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.