Kings vs. Mavericks
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (75%) · Mavericks at 77¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Mavericks
4
Mavericks 75%
$12.8K
-$272.71
80.2¢ → 77¢
-4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidMavericks at 77%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI Libratus007 | Mavericksavg 80.1¢ | $15.8K | $12.4K | -$254.71 | — 13-1 (14) |
NI niceqqqqq3 | Mavericksavg 82¢ | $410 | $392.5 | -$17.5 | 43% 37-50 (87) |
 RollAwayTheDew<$100 | Mavericksavg 83¢ | $20.08 | $18.99 | -$1.09 | 53% 469-408 (877) |
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100 | Kingsavg 21¢ | $6.14 | $6.73 | +$0.58 | 54% 3443-2988 (6431) |
Invested
$15,788.99
Value
$12.4K
PnL
-$254.71
Record
—
13-1 (14)
Invested
$410
Value
$392.5
PnL
-$17.5
Record
43%
37-50 (87)
RollAwayTheDew<$100Invested
$20.08
Value
$18.99
PnL
-$1.09
Record
53%
469-408 (877)
Invested
$6.14
Value
$6.73
PnL
+$0.58
Record
54%
3443-2988 (6431)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.